Focus on the way forward after Pretoria agreement

Hope and scepticism greeted Wednesday's power sharing agreement between the transitional government of Burundi, led by Domitien Ndayizeye, and the country's largest rebel group, the Conseil national pour la defense de la democratie-Forces de defense de la democratie (CNDD-FDD) led by Pierre Nkurunziza. While the UN, the AU, the EU and other governments expressed hope that the deal would herald lasting peace in the war-torn country, several Burundian political actors remained doubtful that the CNDD-FDD would respect the accord. "Burundi government has signed several accords with rebel groups to no avail, as other movements not bound by those accords continued the fight. The same might happen again," Pie Ntukarutimana, the chairman of the human rights group, Iteka, told IRIN on. However, those expressing hope said the agreement would this time around put the country on a firm footing toward lasting peace because unlike past deals, it specified who would get what under the arrangement. Expressing this optimism, Nkurunziza described the agreement as "sunshine after the rain". The special representative of the UN Secretary-General to Burundi, Berhanu Dinka, congratulated the government and the rebel group for what he said was their "the political maturity" in agreeing to a document in the interests of the Burundi people. The largely Hutu party Front pour la democratie au Burundi (FRODEBU) - winner of the 1993 elections - termed the accord a significant breakthrough in the peace process. The party's executive secretary and spokesman, Jean de Dieu Mutabazi, told IRIN that FRODEBU based its optimism on the knowledge that the CNDD-FDD had agreed to the deal despite its power to jeopardise the peace process. Among other specifics, 'The Pretoria Protocol on Political, Defence and Security Power Sharing stipulated that the CNDD-FDD would get 40 percent of the military command and 35 percent of the police command, as well as several other political posts. Ntukarutimana said that while there could be significant positive changes in the war situation between the two signatories, the refusal of the other rebel group, Agathon Rwasa's Forces national de la liberation (FNL), to enter the peace process might be a serious obstacle to the implementation of the Pretoria agreement. This is a view shared by many in Burundi. For example, top Burundian officials meeting with civil servants just after Wednesday's agreement preferred to wait and see - citing the experiences of the Arusha and Dar es Salaam agreements which, when signed, raised hopes of peace that were eventually dashed. The Burundi army has also expressed doubt that disarmament and demobilisation of the rebel fighters can be carried as long as Rwasa's FNL remains defiant. In recent weeks, there have been deadly skirmishes between the FNL and CNDD-FDD. Another reason for scepticism is what some political movements, such as Jean Bosco Ndayikengurukiye's wing of the CNDD-FDD, calls the exclusion of other Hutu movements from the Pretoria accord. The spokesman of this wing, Jerome Ndiho, said the accord had discarded "all the great actors of peace in the country". He was referring to what he said was Nkurunziza's gaining the lion share of positions in the army and national institutions, to the detriment of the other opposition groups. "The Burundi government has a serious problem of credibility since it signed an agreement without taking into account past agreements," Ndiho told IRIN. This was in reference to Arusha accord and the accord of 7 October 2002 between the Burundi government and the CNDD-FDD faction led by Jean Bosco Ndayikengurukiye and the FNL-Palipehutu faction of Alain Mugabarabona. Ndiho said Ndayikengurukiye's wing would maintain the political fight for inclusion and perhaps bring the matter to the former Burundian mediator, Nelson Mandela, for arbitration. For Rwasa’s FNL this could be its last chance to join the peace train. South African Deputy President and Burundi peace facilitator, Jacob Zuma, told Reuters in Stockholm on Thursday that he would try, again, to get the faction to stop fighting. But, he warned, if it refused then it would, sooner or later, "wither away".