Hopes for the future depend on clean elections

The future of Guinea-Bissau, a poor small and largely forgotten country on the coast of West Africa, depends on the government's ability to hold credible parliamentary elections on October 12 that have been postponed three times already. If the elections go ahead and are judged to be reasonably free and transparent, Guinea-Bissau is likely to receive a much-needed economic lifeline. Western donors are expected to loosen their purse strings, ending a period of international isolation and donor fatigue, much of it blamed on the erratic policies of President Kumba Yala. But should the elections not take place, or should they be marred by fraud and further evidence of political breakdown, this poverty-stricken country, which is still recovering from a 1998-99 civil war, could face a new period of domestic turbulence. Civil servants have been unpaid for up to eight months in this former Portuguese colony and the government has only just brought the wages of its restless army up to date. Back to the wall The president, spurned by his regional peers, vilified by opposition leaders and strongly distrusted by his own armed forces, has been warned, both at home and abroad, that time is running out. “Kumba Yala only listens when he has his back to the wall”, one respected local economist said. “He should know his own physical well-being might be in jeopardy if he doesn’t hold elections in October”. The voter registration process has begun, at least in the capital Bissau. Elections officials ventured out in torrential rain, backed by messages on national radio, urging voters to find their documents and register. Rival political parties have already started campaigning, levelling fierce accusations at each other. But in this shabby city of overcrowded hospitals and rundown schools, where civil servants no longer count on making an honest living from the bankrupt state, few see the elections as offering any kind of panacea. “Things can only get better”, is a constant refrain in Guinea-Bissau. It comes from petty traders at the huge Praca Bandim market complaining about the slump in business, from patients seeking treatment at Bissau’s main hospital, from entrepreneurs and trade unionists. Even from the musicians playing bars and restaurants for a pittance. In Bissau, dozens of buildings ruined in the eight-month civil war, remain dilapidated. The former battle-lines are still identifiable, marked by old weapons dumps and rusty tanks. It is more than four years since the last shot was fired, but the peace has been marked by disappointments and setbacks. Guinea-Bissau, an expanse of flat swampy land divided by wide rivers that empty into the Atlantic, is amongst the poorest countries in the world. Grinding poverty It ranks 167th out of 173 in the United Nations' Human Development Index (HDI). According to the World Bank, around 88 per cent of the population lives on less than $1 a day. The civil war forced thousands of civilians out of their homes and wrecked the country’s already fragile economy. This depends on subsistence farming, fishing and exports of cashew nuts. But whereas the country once exported rice, many of its inhabitants today rely on food handouts from the UN World Food Programme to fill their belly. After several years of modest growth, Guinea-Bissau's gross domestic product contracted by a massive 28 percent in 1998. It has not recovered since. Yala was elected president in February 2000, winning 72 percent of the national vote in a poll that was generally regarded as free and fair. A former teacher, he began his political careers as an ideologue of the African Party of Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC). This fought a guerrilla war against Portuguese colonial rule and took over the reins of government at independence in 1974. Yala subsequently broke away from the PAIGC in order to stand unsuccessfully as a presidential candidate in the country's first multi-party elections in 1994. Six years later, campaigning as the candidate of the Party of Social Renewal (PRS), Yala stood again for the presidency, highlighting the need to work for peace and national unity after the brief but destructive civil war which ended the 18-year rule of President Nino Vieira. This time he won a landslide victory. “We need to cultivate tolerance and accept we can have unity in diversity”, Yala told the nation after being confirmed as head of state. “All our country’s citizens will have their place in building up a new society”. Confusion in government But his three-year rule has been dominated by ministerial sackings, summary arrests, alleged coup plots, dramatic policy switches and government attacks on both the judiciary and the independent media. Yala has been accused of concentrating power in his own hands, stoking tribalism by favouring members of his own Balante ethnic group and failing to provide coherent leadership. He dissolved parliament in November 2002, but fresh elections scheduled for February, where put off until April, before being postponed again until June and then October. His current government was supposed to be a caretaker administration, appointed to rule for 90 days. But it has been in place for nine months. The Prime Minister, Mario Pires, is the fourth to be appointed by Yala in less than four years. His predecessor, Alhama Nhasse, accused the unpredictable president of being “the sole person behind the instability in the country”. Yala's PRS remains the largest party in the National Assembly, but has only 38 out of 102 seats. It has ruled through a series of coalitions which one by one have disintegrated. This country of just 1.3 million people still awaits the promulgation of a new constitution, which was approved by parliament months ago but has yet to be endorsed by the head of state. UN patience severely tried David Stephen, who heads the United Nations Peace-building Support Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS), says the UN’s patience has been severely tried. His reports to UN headquarters in New York, like those of his predecessor Samuel Nana-Sinkam, have become increasingly critical, stressing the need for constitutional legality and institutional stability. “People are afraid that the country will step back into conflict unless there are effective institutions to manage political tensions and conflicts,” Stephen told IRIN. “The priority for the government must be to get their own house in order.” But Stephen stopped short of describing the erratic Yala as a dictator. “The separation of powers has ceased to be meaningful, but the style of the government is one of openness," he said. " There are worrying human rights violations, it is true, but no way are we relapsing into the previous patterns when there was a brutal dictatorship in this country”. There are inevitable rumours about a coup, but senior diplomats said General Verissimo Correia Seabra, the military chief or staff, had no desire to take over, even though he had clearly signalled his concerns to the government. With only a handful of European embassies in Bissau and no American presence, Guinea-Bissau’s internal problems have often been overshadowed by bigger crises in West Africa. But there has been a concerted attempt in recent months to turn things round. A UN Security Council delegation visited Bissau in June. And the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has taken an active interest. More recently, East Timor’s Foreign Minister and Nobel peace prize laureate, José Ramos Horta, spent a week touring Guinea-Bissau as the special envoy of the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries. “I would hope that the international community does not give up on Guinea-Bissau, that they give them a second chance," Ramos Horta told IRIN." They are making every effort to have the elections on October 12, but elections are not everything. Beyond elections, they have to create jobs for the people, they have to pay salaries.” Guinea-Bissau’s Foreign Minister, Fatoumata Djau Balde, complained that promises of foreign aid to help the government out of its crisis had not been followed by actual disbursements of cash. “The international community has been a bit unfair," she told IRIN. "Since the last elections were held, we’ve only heard promises, concrete measures have always been delayed.” Djau Balde said foreign criticism of the country focused too much on its political troubles. “People need to look at the social and economic aspects as well and see how Guinea-Bissau is suffering”. But former Foreign Minister Antonieta Rosa Gomes, who was sacked by Kumba Yala in November 2001, said the president had only himself to blame for Guinea-Bissau’s negative image abroad. “When I was in office we worked really hard to rebuild relations with the outside world, both bilateral and multilateral partners, and we did well”, she told IRIN. “But all that has been thrown away now. The image of the country needs to be re-launched with a new philosophy of government, with a proper respect for the constitution. We need all that to win back our partners. If we fail, it’s the people of Guinea-Bissau who will suffer”. Rosa Gomes said Yala’s election victory in 2000 owed much to the support of allies like her own Guinean Civic Forum (FCG). But she added these former friends gave up on the president long ago. “If he stood now, he wouldn’t get 25 per cent of the vote,” she said. Continued