Welcome to IRIN's weekly top picks of must-read research, podcasts, reports, blogs and in-depth articles to help you keep on top of global crises.
Four to read:
On Monday, Colombia’s President Santos signed a peace deal with the commander-in-chief of FARC, bringing a symbolic end to the continent’s longest-running civil war. After four long years of negotiations in Havana, it was a moment to savour, but as this article by Mimi Yagoub for Insight Crime makes clear, implementing the agreement and achieving lasting peace across the country will be the real challenge. Polls suggest that Colombians will vote ‘yes’ to the deal in a referendum this Sunday. As FARC demobilises, the fear is that drug trafficking organisations and other armed groups such as the National Liberation Army (ELN) will move into their former territories. There is also a high risk that some factions of FARC will refuse to disarm. Yagoub warns that Colombia’s thriving cocaine trade, which has more than doubled since the peace talks began, could be the main driver of the country’s “new criminal dynamics”. If Colombians are to really benefit from the peace deal, the state will need to quickly establish governance in areas where FARC has been the de facto authority for decades.
The case against war between India and Pakistan
A summer of violent protest in India’s Jammu and Kashmir state got even hotter on 18 September when militants killed 19 government soldiers. India blamed the attack on Pakistan, which has long backed militant groups in the Himalayan region, which is claimed by both countries. Since then, politicians, television anchors, Bollywood actors, and social media users have been beating the drums of war. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Sameer Lalwani makes a well-reasoned case for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to resist pressure to escalate tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours, which have fought two of their three major wars over Kashmir. Lalwani advises Modi to follow “the wisdom of past Indian prime ministers, who recognised the costs of a risky, destabilising crisis dwarf the scant political, reputational, and coercive effects.” That advice took on added urgency later in the week when India announced it had carried out “surgical strikes” into Pakistani-administered territory, while Pakistan denied the claim and said two of its soldiers were killed in cross-border shelling.
For more on Kashmir, here’s our report from Srinagar.
Redefining civil society in Jordan
Jordan held its first parliamentary polls under a much-heralded new election law this week, but those not committed to following the ins and outs of the kingdom could be forgiven for missing it all. The status quo was largely maintained, turnout was low, and the monarch still rules. But while the elections may not have made a big difference, this paper from Chatham House’s Heba AlNasser points to an encouraging trend in the country – the growth of small, local NGOs that don’t usually rely on donor money but instead on small business initiatives. These fledgling enterprises see themselves as separate from both the international NGO scene and organisations dominated by the royal family. Founded by locals, these groups say they know best what their communities need. One NGO has revived an old tradition of neighbours exchanging meals: when customers buy a sandwich they can also buy a token that anyone in need can come and collect for a free sandwich. Another NGO built a skatepark with money from crowdfunding. The takeaway? Civil society is changing and growing in Jordan. And that’s a good thing for those who want to see the political system open up someday too.
Ambition versus reality in Burundi
To avert a humanitarian catastrophe in Burundi, the African Union “needs to overcome its internal divisions, fix a so far incoherent response and facilitate a negotiated settlement between the government and the opposition”. Simple then. The problem, as this report by the International Crisis Group lays bare, is that the AU’s response to the Burundi challenge highlights just how dependent it is on the whims of ineffectual regional leaders, and the lack of coordination between Addis Ababa and the UN Security Council.
International attention on Burundi is drifting. The government appears to have realised that keeping casualties to a minimum gives it leeway. But, says the report, “postponing firmer, more unified action would leave the country at best in a permanent state of low intensity violence”. The AU must insist, at the very least, on the deployment of its human rights and military observers. There must also be concerted international action to secure a negotiated solution “and prevent a deeper decent into civil war”.
For more on the crisis, watch this video briefing from the Institute for Security Studies.
One from IRIN:
Iraq’s Mosul: a make-or-break moment for aid agencies?
It’s the worst-kept secret in warfare that the battle to seize back Mosul from so-called Islamic State is almost upon us. Arguably, the offensive is already under way. For several weeks, Iraqi forces, backed by an international coalition, have been tightening the noose around Iraq’s second city. When the much smaller Iraqi city of Fallujah was taken back from IS in June, the humanitarian response was widely and rightly panned: assistance was late and woefully inadequate, even on tents. With 10 times as many civilians at risk in Mosul, IRIN’s Middle East Editor Annie Slemrod took a long, hard look at preparations this time around. She found that access to the region was better and that there were certainly a lot more agencies and NGOs involved in the Mosul operation. But serious challenges remain, in particular finding enough land for camps and for tents to be pitched. Senior aid industry figures assured her that everything possible was being done. However the reality is stark: no amount of planning can prepare you for the exodus of up to one million desperate civilians in a matter of days.
Coming up:
‘Life in Kyrgyzstan’ 6-7 October in Bishkek
For Central Asian buffs, either already in the region or who can travel, this two-day conference gathers national and international experts to discuss all things Kyrgyzstan. Following up on a landmark study of the country, which has grown in internatonal significance as militancy has spread in the region, the event includes topics ranging from migration and remittances to nutrition and food security to peace-building and trust.
You’ll need to register by Monday, 3 October. You can do so here:
(TOP PHOTO: Women hurry past Indian security forces in Srinagar. CREDIT: Nimisha Jaiswal/IRIN)
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