As vote nears less violence than expected

Almost five years after the civil war ended the majority of Sierra Leoneans still live in grinding poverty, yet even as tensions mount ahead of general elections renewed violence appears unlikely.

"People predicted there would be flash points in places like Bo [Sierra Leone's second city] but so far it hasn't happened," said one international official who did not want his name used as he was not authorised to speak about domestic politics.

As some 2.6 million of Sierra Leonean's six million people head to the polls on 11 August to choose a president and parliament, most people across the country lack access to basic services such as water, sanitation and electricity. Rampant poverty and massive unemployment are often cited as potentially destablising factors in a country creeping back from a decade-long civil war.

Violence had been predicted in part because the elections are the first since the international community withdrew what had been the world's largest peacekeeping force.

Political experts highlighted another reason violence might be high: the country's proportional representation electoral system had been changed to a constituency-based one in which voters choose their local candidates directly. "Individual candidates often have patronage networks, often youths who rely on them, and that can be a source of the violence," the unnamed official said.

"But so far that has not really happened," he added.

Some pockets of violence

In the last days of campaigning in early August tens of thousands of people attended rallies in the capital Freetown and other towns with only minor incidents reported.

In July violence erupted in some pockets of the country however. Fighting in the eastern town of Kailahun was, according to presidential candidate Charles Margai, a prelude to an attempt on his life. Yet, according to an independent investigation, the violence was more a consequence of rivalry between two brothers, one of whom was the local chief.

Some groups have used the elections as an occasion to perpetrate violent acts against rivals, observers said.

The worst violence was predicted in the southeast around Bo, where people’s support is split between Vice President Solomon Berewa, candidate for the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP), and Margai's new breakaway People's Movement for Democratic Change (PMDC).

According to a July report by the International Crisis Group, traditionally the ethnic Mende majority in the Bo area have supported the SLPP but many turned against the party after the arrest and indictment of Hinga Norman, an ex-government minister from Bo District who headed the Kamajor militia, which helped defend the government against the former rebel Revolutionary United Front in the civil war. Norman was arrested by the UN-backed Special Court for Sierra Leone and died in custody in March 2007.

Crisis Group said, "Supporters consider him a hero who helped return the country to civilian rule and blame in particular Berewa, who was justice minister and attorney general when the Special Court was set up."

The report added, "The incidence of political interference and intimidation during voter registration in March was higher in SLPP strongholds that are now seriously contested by the PMDC."

Crisis Group concludes, "This reflects strong anxiety in the ruling party that its hold may be slipping and underlies the fears of many, including in the security agencies, that those areas are potential flashpoints during the elections."

Voting for what?

Observers say the parties are all agreed on what matters to voters. "It's about providing basic services like heath care, water and education," said the unnamed official. "This election is not about what to do but about who is best placed to do it".

Berewa has been the key interlocutor for donors and has virtually controlled post-war reconstruction, according to the Crisis Group report, yet "he also bears major responsibility for lack of progress in restoring delivery of services and in rebuilding core state institutions," the report said.

Berewa and President Ahmed Tejan Kabbah have done little to implement the recommendations of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission or to bring closure to the armed conflict, observers say. "But time is the greatest healer," the unnamed official told IRIN. "And for the many young people who are voting the war is already a distant memory."

dh/np