All-out war "catastrophic" for southern Somalia - famine watchdog

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has warned of potentially "catastrophic" effects of all-out war in Somalia. In an emergency alert issued on Friday as the conflict began to escalate, the analysis service highlighted the food security threat to southern Somalia, where 1.1 million people are already facing a humanitarian crisis while half a million are seriously affected by floods.

The brewing conflict had already had a "serious impact" in disrupting farming which had led to higher prices. Since October, food prices rose by 17 percent in Beletweyne, even before recent fighting. Insecurity also prevents the efficient functioning of local markets and systems of barter and makes access to health services more problematic, the alert states. Insecurity and floods mean that prospects for Somalia's secondary "Deyr" harvest in February "are bleak".

Potential positive impacts from a one-off harvest from recently flooded lands next year and improvements in food trade through the recently-opened ports of Mogadishu and Kismayo cannot cancel out the negative pressures on food security, the report argues.

Fighting between forces of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), backed by Ethiopia, entered a seventh day on Tuesday with further air attacks by Ethiopia, including on key airports. European Commissioner Louis Michel described the situation as all-out war. The UIC's losses include the towns of Beletweyne and Buur Hakaba. The official Ethiopian News Agency quoted Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi as saying, "The conflict of the Ethiopian people has been with the minority terrorist group operating under the leadership of the UIC... Ethiopia's defence measure is targeted only at this terrorists' group... we call upon the majority UIC members to press ahead for the resumption of negotiations."

TFG and Ethiopian troops captured strategically important Beletweyne, UIC officials confirmed. The town had been under UIC control since August. "Our forces were ordered to retreat to the surrounding mountains," Sheikh Ibrahim Shukri, UIC spokesman told IRIN on Monday from Mogadishu. In Beletweyne, many residents, who had only recently returned from temporary camps after they were displaced by floods, were again on the move, a local resident told IRIN. "Many families fled the fighting on Sunday but some are returning today [Tuesday]," he said. "Most of those who have not returned are in nearby villages waiting to see how things develop."

An eyewitness told IRIN that "two to three aircraft" had struck the Mogadishu international airport on Monday at around 9:30 am local time. There was one civilian aircraft in the airport at the time. "They came flying very high and attacked the airport and then left," the eyewitness said. Shukri said the planes strafed the airport and caused very little damage. "They hit an area just outside the airport. Only two people were slightly injured," he said. The UIC reopened Mogadishu airport on 24 August, after it had been closed for at least 11 years, and controls Mogadishu and much of the south of the country.
TFG Spokesman Abdirahman Dinari said the TFG supported the bombing of Mogadishu airport. "Anywhere the terrorists are using to bring in weapons and foreign terrorists should be bombed," he said.

The European Commission (EC) condemned on Sunday the escalation of conflict in Somalia and asked for an immediate cessation of hostilities. "I condemn in the strongest terms the escalation of the conflict in Somalia into an all-out war and appeal for all Somali sides to cease immediately all hostilities," said Louis Michel, EC commissioner for development and humanitarian aid, in a statement on Monday. "I express my deepest concern on the reported involvement of foreign forces in Somalia and urge all external players to refrain immediately from intervening militarily in Somali affairs and provoking further violence."

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