Peace process still has a long way to go

The ink had hardly dried on the ceasefire agreement signed by the Liberian government and rebels, when accusations of violations started to trickle in. Delegates to the peace talks in Ghana were also left wondering how the West African mediators would square rebel expectations that President Charles Taylor step down within 30 days with Taylor's own stated intention of remaining in office until January 2004. And questions remained over who would provide the troops for an International Stabilisation Force to keep the warring factions apart while a transitional government of national unity is set up to supervise the organisation of fresh elections. It was far from clear who would pay for such a peacekeeping force, which according to one proposal circulating at the peace talks in Accra, would be 2,000-strong. Diplomats also questioned whether it could be deployed quickly enough to prevent the newly signed truce from breaking down. Liberia has been in a state of near constant civil war since 1989 and there have been many false dawns before. So despite rejoicing in the streets of Monrovia when the ceasefire was signed on Tuesday and relief among aid agencies that they would be able to get back into the field to assist Liberia's 2.7 million population, many seasoned observers expressed doubts that the guns would remain silent for long. One diplomat who is following the peace talks closely said: "At the moment, the Liberian peace process hinges on ECOWAS, which brokered the ceasefire. It depends on how quickly it can get the joint verification team, the joint monitoring committee, and an international stabilisiation force on the ground." Desmond Davies, London-based editor of West Africa magazine, said the prospects for lasting peace would depend on how the peace talks proceed in the coming weeks. "The ceasefire agreement doesn't mean Taylor is going after 30 days. But is definately a step towards that. They all have to agree now on modalities of the transition," he told IRIN. "But the ball is in the rebel's court. A lot depends on how they approach it. If they start a fight over who should replace Taylor, then it is back to square one," Davies said. "They have to accept a negotiated arrangement, find leaders with the intellectual depth to grapple with Liberia's immense economic and political problems and agree to give adequate time for proper elections." Sources at the peace talks in Ghana told IRIN that one of the two rebel movements, Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) had already floated its chairman, Sekou Conneh, as a possible replacement for Taylor. Others mentioned as potential leaders of an interim government included Vice President Moses Zeh Gblah, who was sacked by Taylor earlier this month on charges of plotting a coup, only to be reinstated a few days later, and opposition leader, Ellen Sirleaf-Johnson. But immediate concerns focussed on allegations by both rebel movements that Taylor's forces had continued to attack their positions across the country after the ceasefire came into effect at midnight on Tuesday. Charles Bennie, a LURD representative at the peace talks, told IRIN in Accra on Wednesday that government fighters had continued to attack LURD positions on the outskirts of Monrovia and in Nimba and Sinoe counties in central Liberia. "It is unacceptable for someone who has signed an peace agreement with us to behave like this. It is up to the international community to bring Taylor to heel and curb these attacks. We have been informed about attacks on other LURD positions, but we do not have the details yet," Bennie said. Boi Bleaju Boi, the military commander of LURD's ally, the Movement for Democracy in Liberia (MODEL), also accused Taylor of violating the truce. "Our positions are being attacked. We were attacked at Nimba county, Sinoe county and the Grand Bassa highway at 1:00 GMT and are still being attacked," Boi said. "I am going to order my forces to defend themselves and pursue Taylor's men." But officials of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which is brokering the peace talks said allegations of ceasefire infringements were only to be expected. "Orders to soldiers of the various factions to stop fighting will take some time to tickle down to the combatants on the field. The same thing happened with the Ivory Coast crisis," one source in the ECOWAS Secretariat said. "We do not have any confirmation of these attacks, but we have signed a cease-fire with the leaders of the warring groups. The onus is now on them to stop further skirmishes from recurring," Diplomats said the rebel claims indicated a continuing high level of distrust between the two sides in the conflict. "They talk, but don't trust each other at all. The rebels want Taylor out now. But Taylor's men insist that he and other officials must have some guarantees against possible prosecution before they leave," said one diplomat who has been following the negotiations closely. The ceasefire agreement paves way for talks on a comprehensive peace settlement and the formation of a transitional government without Taylor within 30 days. It also provides for the deployment of an international stabilisation force, the restructuring of the Liberian security forces and the holding of fresh elections. Taylor is to be excluded from the transitional government, on the basis of his own declaration that he would step down at the end of his current term in January 2004. "If President Taylor is seen as a problem, then I will remove myself. I'm doing this because I'm tired of the people dying. I can no longer see this genocide in Liberia," Taylor told the opening session of the peace talks in Accra on June 4. But officials and analysts said the exact timing of Taylor's exit required further clarification. "President Taylor expects the transition government to come into effect after his term ends. The question is when exactly should the transition start?," Blidi Elliot, head of the state-run Liberia Broadcasting System told IRIN. "He has to have an honourable exit. If he is hurried out, how do you gain the allegiance of thousands of his fighters scattered in different parts of the country?." Matters have been complicated by Taylor's indictment by a war crimes tribunal in Sierra Leone. The UN-backed Special Court in Freetown has issued an international warrant for the Liberian leader's arrest. It has accused him of supporting the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) rebel movement, which killed, raped and cut the limbs off tens of thousands of civilians during Sierra Leone's 1991-2001 civil war. "Taylor is terrified that he could go the way of Foday Sankoh [the RUF leader who is already in jail]. He is asking many questions - Where can he go to hide? What would happen to his men?" one diplomat told IRIN. "But it also makes it difficult for everybody else. How can the international community, for instance, continue to work with Taylor when he is indicted for war crimes?." The indictment, which was published as Taylor flew to Ghana for the start of peace talks, also threw the president's cronies into a panic. One government official told IRIN in Monrovia: "We want a security guarantee [at the talks] that we would not be embarrassed after leaving power. This indictment is posing a problem for us. Today it is President Taylor, tomorrow it could be us." Taylor, a former warlord who was eventually elected president in 1997, has demanded that the indictment be rescinded as a condition for peace in Liberia and the sub-region. "Peace in Liberia is dependent and hangs upon that particular situation [the indictment]. It has to be removed," he told reporters last week. But the Special Court spokesman, David Hecht, told IRIN on Wednesday: "Under international law there is no such thing as immunity for those accussed of crimes against humanity." Asked about the possible indictment of other senior government officials in Liberia, Hecht said: "Only the prosecutor can say who he will indict and he doesn't usually give hints before he announces an indictment." Liberian Defence Minister Daniel Chea who led the government delegation to the ceasefire talks, was due to return to Monrovia later this week leaving Sam Brown, a junior foreign minister, to lead the government's delegation to the peace talks. Responding to rebel complaints of ceasefire violations, Chea said it would take at least 72 hours for a complete cessation of hostilities to take effect. "I appeal to my brother, General Boi to exercise patience," he said referring to the MODEL military commander. The peace talks are taking place under the auspices of the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS) which appointed General Abdulsalami Abubakar, a former Nigerian head of state as mediator. Mohammed Ibn Chambas, the Executive Secretary of ECOWAS, Abou Moussa, the special representative of the UN Secretary General for Liberia and Nana Akufo-Addo, the Ghanaian Foreign Minister have also played a key role in the negotiations. Chambas remained upbeat about the peace process. "By the weekend, the Joint Verification Team will get into Liberia to stake out the positions of the former combatants. This will prepare the path for an ECOWAS-led intervention force to enforce the ceasefire," he told IRIN shortly after the truce was signed. "Immediately after this, we will start the political discussions, which will touch on the interim all-inclusive government, future elections and the involvement or exclusion of Taylor in these processes," he added. The Joint Verification Team, which will establish the positions on the ground currently occupied by the combatants, will consist of two representatives of the government, LURD, MODEL, the UN, African Union and the International Contact Group on Liberia. A separate Joint Monitoring Committee, whose members will be drawn from the same organisations, will be set up to investigate reports of ceasefire violations. Diplomats said it was too early to say how big the international peacekeeping force would be or how soon it would be deployed. France has deployed 4,000 troops and ECOWAS has provided over 1,300, to keep the peace in neighbouring Cote d'Ivoire. ECOWAS has appealed to the United States, Britain and France to contribute towards a Liberian peacekeeping force and diplomats said Ghana, Mali and Togo were among the West African countries that had indicated an interest in providing troops for it. "The situation is still fluid and it would be premature to give these details now because we simply do not have them. Chambas is still holding meetings on this issue," the source said. The US Representative at the peace talks, Michael Arietti told IRIN that although a US military unit had been diverted from its duties in the Gulf to assist with the protection and possible evacuation of US citizens in Liberia, he did not "know if they or American Troops will be part of the planned ECOWAS-led International Stabilization Force." Liberia was founded by freed US slaves in the early 19th century and has always enjoyed a special relationship with Washington. Many Liberians would like the United States to lead a peacekeeping force in the country. The ceasefire should at least allow stalled relief work to get under way and permit international aid agencies access to the densely forested interior of the country for the first time in months. A LURD assault on Monrovia which coincided with the start of peace talks two weeks ago has aggravated an already desperate humanitarian situation in the bedraggled city of over one million people. The rebel offensive led to five days of heavy fighting with government forces in the western suburbs of Monrovia and panicked 100,000 displaced people living in camps that were overun by LURD to flee for safety to the city centre. They tramped through pouring rain to seek shelter in schools and the city's main sports stadium. Many residents of the western suburbs also fled their homes which were then pillaged in an orgy of looting. Monrovia has been without running water or mains electricity for 13 years and the latest upsurge in fighting has made life there even more miserable. Food and public transport prices have doubled and fuel has disappeared from petrol stations. Health Minister Peter Coleman said between 300 and 400 people were killed in the street battles. An IRIN correspondent counted 113 bodies lying in one cartridge-strewn avenue. The charity Action by Churches Together (ACT) said 58,000 people, including 400 orphans, were living at the Samuel Doe sports stadium, but its 45 toilets were blocked. "There are only three open wells. The displaced are fetching water from gutters, while making use of latrines in the surrounding area," it said in a statement. World Vision said 12 people had died of diarrhoea at the stadium by Tuesday. "Other diseases like malaria, acute respiratory infection, fever and anaemia, and pneumonia, are widespread," it added. "The humanitarian crisis sparked by the recent violence remains overwhelming." The Catholic Agency for Overseas Development (CAFOD) said at least 5,600 unaccompanied children, some as young as five, had poured into shelters for the displaced over the past week. "The recent fighting, plunged 65 percent of the country into a state of high insecurity and economic hardship. Thousands of children were separated from their parents and face constant harassment and possible recruitment as child soldiers," it said. Child soldiers, many of them orphans of the conflict were also back at the forefront of the fighting and could be seen riding around the streets of Monrovia in pick-up trucks proudly toting their automatic rifles. Relief workers said that on several occasions, Taylor's forces had raided schools and camps for displaced people in search of young recruits. The the government has denied conscripting children by force.