ZAMBIA: Falling life expectancy

JOHANNESBURG, 2 January 2003 (IRIN) - Life expectancy among Zambian adults is falling, according to the findings of two new databases, raising concerns over the impact of HIV/AIDS. The recently published Demographic Health Survey and the 2000 Census of Population and Housing have revealed a "significant deterioration in adult survivorship", the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) said in a report released this week. "Between 1990 and 2000, Zambian adults have lost approximately 11 years of life expectancy. This is highly concentrated in the reproductive age group and thought to be attributable to the HIV/AIDS pandemic," the report said. According to UN figures, gathered over a different time frame, life expectancy at birth was 47.2 years between 1970-75, falling to 40.5 between 1995-2000. There has been a decline in HIV infection rates in Zambia (among 15 to 29-year-old urban women HIV prevalence fell from 28.3 percent in 1996 to 24.1 percent in 1999). But, UNICEF said, "taken together, the two studies raise fears that declining prevalence of HIV may be as much a consequence of deaths as of declining incidence rates." An estimated 1.2 million Zambians are HIV positive, with 21.5 percent of all adults aged between 15 and 49 years infected with the virus. Around 86 percent of Zambians are classified as poor, which can impact on the nutritional status - the first line of defence - for people living with HIV/AIDS. Meanwhile, the children's agency reported that an emergency measles campaign, supported by UNICEF and the World Health Organisation in Zambia's Southern province has reached 700,000 high-risk children. Since the beginning of 2002, Zambia has had an epidemic of measles that started in the Western province, with 8,000 reported cases, and then spread to Lusaka and Central province. Health authorities were alarmed at the prospect of the outbreak reaching the Southern province where measles coverage rates were low - below 60 percent - acute malnutrition was rapidly rising and serious water shortages were developing, UNICEF said. The resultant high coverage should prevent outbreaks and deaths from measles in areas now battling with drought and food insecurity. Zambia is scheduled to conduct nationwide measles immunisation early in 2003 to reach the remaining provinces. Coverage in these remaining areas is already below 80 percent.