Hoping for the best as presidential election approaches

An opposition leader has been denied entry into Madagascar to register for the December presidential election but the United Nations (UN) is confident that the country's ability to hold a credible poll remains intact.

Officials closed the airport to international flights in the eastern city of Toamasina on Saturday, preventing former Deputy Prime Minister Pierrot Rajaonarivelo from returning from exile in France. He faces corruption charges after serving in former President Didier Ratsiraka's AREMA party government.

A second attempt to enter the country was frustrated on Thursday when officials on the neighbouring Indian Ocean island of Mauritius barred him from boarding a plane after official requests from Madagascar said he posed a security risk. Registration for the 3 December elections closes on saturday.

Bouri Sanhouidi, the UN Resident Coordinator, told IRIN: "I am confident. For the time being things are going well, the preparatory work is ongoing with the support from technical assistance from the United Nations development Programme ... all donors are involved ... to ensure free and fair elections."

Incumbent President Marc Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka both claimed victory in 2001 elections. After a violent standoff and a recount in April 2002, Madagascar's High Constitutional Court (HCC) pronounced Ravalomanana president, but it was not until July that Ratsiraka fled and Ravalomanana gained control of the country.

"He [Rajaonarivelo] has been sued many months ago, and was invited to attend a tribunal and he didn't come. Now people are wondering why he wants to come now," said Solofo Randrianja, professor of Political History at the University of Toamasina. "He hasn't been in Madagascar for four years, he is not realistic about what is going on - he is even criticised by the opposition."

Observers said the blocking was motivated by fears that Rajaonarivelo's arrest would spark violence and jeopardise the electoral process.

"He would have been arrested and would not have been able to register anyway, and with the arrest warrant his candidacy would never have been approved by the courts," said one local diplomat. "If Madagascar is serious about justice and the sentences they pronounce, they would have had no choice but to arrest him, [which] would have caused demonstrations and could lead to violence."

A protest by Rajaonarivelo's AREMA opposition party supporters demanding that the airport be reopened was reported in Toamasina on Tuesday. Crowds were reportedly dispersed by police firing teargas and six were arrested but released the following day.

"On Saturday he [Rajaonarivelo] called for a general strike; now he is calling for a march in Toamasina this Saturday, but everything still seems very quiet," Randrianja said.

Five candidates have registered to challenge Ravalomanana and more are expected by the cut-off time tomorrow. The HCC is likely to announce the names of the approved candidates next week, with election campaigning scheduled to kick off on 12 November.

International donors are investing in the smooth running of the polls: the European Union (EU) has pledged US$3.75 million, Norway is contributing $1 million and Japan has pledged to provide the ministry of the interior, which is in charge of the electoral process, with $1.1 million. The US will contribute $1.1 million to support civic education and observation, and China is donating 20 computers, office material and 600 bicycles.

To counter fraud, $1.5 million of the EU funding has been set aside to develop a single computerised list of voters, as opposed to various handwritten lists. "The lists will be sent to the districts and individuals, and civil society will be encouraged to check it so that everyone is on it and there are no double names," Sanhouidi said.

However, fraud will remain a challenge: "if the incumbent president wins, other candidates will contest the results, saying there is fraud," Randrianja predicted. "We have to expect some level of fraud - for decades all officials worked like that, and they haven't changed. They will support the current government: they work for the state and want to keep their positions."

According to Randrianja, "there are lots of tricks" to manipulate the process, and there was a need to educate citizens, but "even in another four years this will be difficult - in some rural areas, for example, it is a community-based choice; the chief tells people what to vote."

"We cannot master the political process," Sanhouidi said. "We [international community] will do our part, but the Malagasy have to help us and make sure that the election is held in a peaceful manner. We call on all Malagasy citizens, the government, political leaders and civil society leaders to take their full responsibility to ensure free and fair elections."

Nevertheless, Sanhouidi was upbeat. "The Malagasy Council of Christian Churches (FFKM) have made a declaration that they will remain neutral. This is very positive, and they have asked their believers to take responsibility, to participate and to ensure elections are held in a peaceful and democratic manner."

tdm/he/oa