Diplomat fails to bring rival leaders to the table

Another attempt at a diplomatic solution to Madagascar's increasingly violent power struggle failed at the weekend as the country's rival leaders dug in their heels. Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) Secretary General Wilfred Bertille arrived in the capital, Antananarivo, on Friday, hoping to bring an end to the three-month long presidential dispute. Civic organisations hoped that Bertille's visit would "provide some concrete solutions" to the dispute, but were disappointed when local media reported on Monday that "Bertille's visit did not accomplish much". While Bertille's intervention was welcomed by the international community, a diplomatic source in Antananarivo told IRIN on Monday: "Bertille's visit was well-intentioned but his mission was too short and overly ambitious." Bertille's weekend visit was expected to set up a meeting in the Seychelles between incumbent President Didier Ratsiraka and opposition candidate Marc Ravalomanana, who declared himself president on 22 February after disputing the results of a December presidential poll. Bertille was also expected to meet civic organisations and religious bodies to create an internal pressure group in support of negotiations. "We hoped that Bertille's visit would be more effective than the recent Organisation of African Unity (OAU) delegation," said Madeleine Ramaholimihaso, who headed a consortium of civil society organisations which supervised the December poll. On a recent visit to the country, the OAU urged the rival candidates to set up a government of national unity to resolve the leadership crisis. Analysts have interpreted both candidates' refusal to talk to each other as an unofficial snub of the OAU's recommendations. "The political crisis can only be solved from within. External diplomacy is often seen as interference and very rarely works if the parties feel as if they have more to lose," political science lecturer at the University of Stellenbosh, Heidi Hudson, told IRIN. She said Ratsiraka was gaining most from the political stand-off as the shortages in Antananarivo turned residents against Ravalomanana, who now runs the capital and has installed a rival government there. Bertille's visit came amid rising tensions on the island. In a televised address on Friday, Ravalomanana said the country was "in a state of war" and called for the arrest of those suspected of blowing up three strategic bridges last week. As well as cutting off fuel supplies, the blockades around ports and on roads have prevented imports and exports to and from the island, paralysing the economy, as well as robbing the capital of essential supplies. The recent acts of sabotage are seen by analysts as a tactic by Ratsiraka supporters to isolate Antananarivo and to force Ravalomanana to dissolve the "government" he installed in February. In another development, on Sunday 48 inmates broke out of the main prison in Antananarivo, prompting Ravalomanana's appointed prime minister, Jacques Sylla, to announce that security in the capital and neighbouring towns would be stepped up. The breakout, which began as inmates set fire to part of the facility, ended a few hours later with several of the escapers caught just outside the gates and others rounded up at roadblocks, Midi Madagaskara, a pro-opposition newspaper said on Monday. Meanwhile, as fears of security mounts in the capital and the political stalemate continues, aid organisations have already begun preparing for an impending humanitarian crisis. "Essential supplies, especially those that come from the coast, have disappeared from the market. Sugar, salt, flour, oil and other basic foods have disappeared from the supermarket shelves in the capital, while the price of rice has shot up by 50 percent," Adama Guindo, United Nations Development Programme representative in Madagascar, told IRIN. While Ravalomanana controls the capital, pro-Ratsiraka supporters have established a rival power-base in the port city of Tamatave and imposed an economic blockade. Ravalomanana insists the blockade must be lifted before he enters into negotiation. Ratsiraka has refused to negotiate until Ravalomanana renounces the presidency.