<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" version="2.0"><channel><title>IRIN - Early Warning</title><link>http://www.irinnews.org/</link><description>Updated everyday</description><language>en-gb</language><lastBuildDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 09:30:43 GMT</lastBuildDate><item><title>Analysis: How to avoid a fourth year of serious flooding in Pakistan</title><pubDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2011/201110191142590031t.jpg" />]]>SUKKUR 21 May 2013 (IRIN) - Since 2010, monsoon rain in Pakistan has brought with it some of the biggest seasonal flooding in living memory. 
  
Two months from this year’s rains, weather forecasters are already predicting above normal rainfall and in some areas standing water has yet to drain away from last year’s monsoon.</description><body><![CDATA[SUKKUR 21 May 2013 (IRIN) - Since 2010, monsoon rain in Pakistan has brought with it some of the biggest seasonal flooding in living memory.

Two months from this year’s rains, weather forecasters are already predicting above normal rainfall [ http://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/humanitarian-bulletin-pakistan-issue-14-5-%E2%80%93-30-april-2013 ] and in some areas standing water has yet to drain away from last year’s monsoon.

So, after three years of destruction, how ready is the country for this year’s monsoon?

“The situation is not what we would call optimal, but over the last three years, since the 2010 floods, there have been significant improvements [in government and humanitarian organisations’ capacity],” said Khaleel Tetlay, chief operating officer at the Rural Support Programmes Network, which is working with the US Agency for International Development (USAID) in Sindh Province to boost communities’ resilience to natural disasters.

“[Whether or not heavy rain will cause flooding] is very difficult to predict. But if we prepare at the federal, provincial and community levels, a lot of damage can be prevented, especially the loss of life.”

The three floods have damaged infrastructure and houses, displaced millions and caused billions of dollars’ worth of losses to the country’s most important sector - agriculture.

The 2012 floods damaged nearly 650,000 houses in three provinces of Pakistan, and affected almost 1.2 million acres (485,623 hectares) of land. Over 12,000 cattle died [ http://www.ndma.gov.pk/Documents/monsoon/2012/damages/january/damages_details_23_01_2013.pdf ].

The residual humanitarian impact of last year’s floods and the slow drainage of floodwaters have increased vulnerability. Over a million people have yet to return to their homes, living either in temporary settlements or shelters built next to their damaged houses [ http://pakresponse.info/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=IaZV7zwPDF4%3d&tabid=148&mid=915 ].

On the other hand, the experience of three years of flooding has also strengthened coping mechanisms and the quality of any eventual humanitarian response.

Building defences

Reducing the risk of disaster requires investment in several sectors, among them the reconstruction and reinforcement of infrastructure in flood-prone areas.

The need for such work becomes clearer when the pattern of flooding is examined.

While the 2010 flood - which at one point covered over 20 percent of the country - was caused by waterway breaches, in 2012 water levels rose because of heavy rain and a lack of proper drainage in flat areas.

Officials say improving infrastructure to prevent major failures in the face of extreme weather can prove critical.

“In many areas [of northern Sindh], the drainage systems could simply not cope with the rain [in 2012], and that is why water hasn’t drained properly. The idea is to improve these systems, rebuild them properly where needed, so that even with heavy rain, water can be taken away as quickly as possible,” Saifullah Bullo from Sindh Province’s Disaster Management Authority (DMA), said.

The focus from the DMA is on rebuilding embankments and improving waterways and reservoirs. To help drainage, teams of workers are digging new channels in areas where standing water is expected to be an issue.

Reconstruction projects give a chance to “build back better” - making sure rebuilt buildings are more resilient to whatever flooding may come in the future.

“The threat is there, and we have been advising people not to build in very low-lying areas or near rivers and canals. So many houses were completely damaged because they were right next to the channels that overflowed,” Irshad Bhatti, a spokesman for the National Disaster Management Authority, said.

“The idea is to help people make better decisions, keeping in mind the threat of floods. Preparation is the most effective strategy.”

Boosting DRR

There is a clear once-bitten-twice-shy logic about preparing for the monsoon, after three years of devastation.

At the heart of this is disaster risk reduction (DRR): A dollar spent on disaster preparedness is worth seven dollars in post-disaster relief and recovery expenditures, according to the UN Development Programme [ http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/presscenter/articles/2012/07/02/act-now-save-later-new-un-social-media-campaign-launched-/ ].

As Pakistan prepares for the rains with a certain sense of déjà vu, aid workers are asking what can be done to avoid repeating the same emergency relief operations each year.

“The drive for funding DRR has come in part from the fatigue and frustration of… donors,” said Shahida Arif of the DRR Forum, an alliance of 69 national and international NGOs.

“It can seem to them like they are continuously funding activities in post-disaster interventions, when many believe the need for this could have been reduced or avoided with investment in disaster mitigation activities.”

Without an effective DRR strategy and adequate preparation, the effects of natural disasters like floods can linger for years.

Damage to cropland by floods in one year, for example, can have an adverse economic impact on farmers’ livelihoods for years to come, as, unable to plant any crops, they are forced to borrow money to make ends meet.

Without emergency financial assistance, the next plantation cycle is affected too - a serious concern as most communities in areas hit by floods since 2010 rely on agriculture for their livelihood.

The 2012 Monsoon Humanitarian Operational Plan (MHOP) [ http://pakresponse.info/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=n6rnPIqYY-I%3D&tabid=41&mid=597 ] expired in March this year, but activities across several areas are ongoing given the critical needs of the affected population.

The humanitarian partners involved in the plan only received 33 percent of the US$161 million that was needed to fully fund it, leaving gaps in coverage.

But despite funding constraints, humanitarians say they have been able to mix in some DRR activities with the ongoing relief distribution.

While providing treatment and medicine to flood victims, district-level health officials from the Sindh government and aid workers have been instructed to explain preventive measures against disease, including bednets, good hygiene and the importance of vaccinations.

Diseases often spike in the aftermath of flooding as water sources become contaminated and insects like mosquitoes multiply in standing water.

The information could prove useful for people like Mohammed Hayat, a farmer whose village of Mir Sikander in Sindh’s Jacobabad District was completely submerged by flooding in 2012.

“The little one is always feverish, off and on, and I have to spend money I don’t have on taking him to Jacobabad. There is the bus fare, and then any medicines the doctor recommends,” Hayat said. “He has been like this since the floods hit.”

Hayat’s family built a temporary shelter after the flood damaged their house, and have not left their village.

“The water is still here in my village, and the mosquitoes breed on it. We have some nets but there are too many mosquitoes, all over the village,” said Hayat. Most villagers in Mir Sikander were not equipped with mosquito nets when the floods hit, he added.

Better humanitarian systems

The experience of the last three years has taught the importance of coordination and helped build a stronger humanitarian system.

One critical need for villagers like Hayat is shelter, a sector where humanitarian organizations are pooling resources and combining efforts to ensure that their response is efficient and quick.

USAID has helped fund [ http://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/%EF%BF%BCbuilding-stronger-shelter-cluster-pakistan ] a dedicated shelter cluster team to ensure that relief operations during disasters are efficient and that wastage is reduced.

Several organizations have also conducted pilot projects to gauge the value of using communication technologies to help improve both preparedness and relief operations, relying on the high and growing number of mobile phones in Pakistan.

The CDAC (Communicating with Disaster-Affected Communities) Network ran a three-month project [ http://www.cdacnetwork.org/public/about/cdac-pakistan ] to improve the exchange of information in disaster areas, in particular between those affected and those providing assistance, using technologies like SMS.

A year later, Pakistan NGO Strengthening Participatory Organisation and the Popular Engagement Policy Lab teamed up to set up a system [ http://www.frontlinesms.com/2012/02/22/sending-a-message-of-accountability-sms-helps-improve-services-after-pakistan-floods/ ] where, using mobile phones, those affected by the floods could provide feedback about the assistance they were, or were not, getting.

The effort is expected to be increased this year, and could improve relief operations by directly connecting providers with the affected.

Better coordination systems also include stronger relations between aid organizations and the relevant government agencies, say the Pakistan Humanitarian Forum (PHF).

“The framework for emergency needs assessment is in place and agreed by all stakeholders, so it can be rolled out as soon as a disaster strikes. This is a key achievement,” a spokesman for PHF said.

The long term

The under-funding of disaster risk reduction and disaster management strategies means significant post-disaster work will be needed each year that there is heavy monsoon rainfall.

“Due to limited resources, the scale of DRR/M programmes is very small and scattered,” the DRR Forum’s Shahida Arif told IRIN.

“In a calamity-struck country, such as Pakistan, it is imperative that long-term, comprehensive, [two- to four-year] DRR interventions are initiated,” she said.

In addition to funding, the lack of coordination between critical disaster-related institutions of the Pakistan government is a major hurdle.

“For DRR to really work, it can’t just be the [National Disaster Management Authority]. Every department, every ministry, has to be on board so that they integrate DRR into their policies and projects,” a senior NDMA official said, requesting anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Under the DRR plan of the Pakistan government, 10 federal ministries, including health, food security, education and housing, are supposed to be involved.

“We have made progress with making policy and setting out goals, but actually bringing everyone on board has been a slow process, and it is far from complete,” the NDMA official said. “We are on the right path, but if everyone is not on the same page, it will not work very well.”

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]]></body><pubDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/98071/Analysis-How-to-avoid-a-fourth-year-of-serious-flooding-in-Pakistan</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2011/201110191142590031t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">SUKKUR 21 May 2013 (IRIN) - Since 2010, monsoon rain in Pakistan has brought with it some of the biggest seasonal flooding in living memory. 
  
Two months from this year’s rains, weather forecasters are already predicting above normal rainfall and in some areas standing water has yet to drain away from last year’s monsoon.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Evacuation volunteers fan out in Bangladesh</title><pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201305160959430064t.jpg" />]]>DHAKA 16 May 2013 (IRIN) - Some 50,000 volunteers in coastal communities across southern Bangladesh are out and about warning people to move to higher ground ahead of Cyclone Mahasen. Hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated so far.</description><body><![CDATA[DHAKA 16 May 2013 (IRIN) - Some 50,000 volunteers in coastal communities across southern Bangladesh are out and about warning people to move to higher ground ahead of Cyclone Mahasen. Hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated so far. 

“We’ve been working here for the last couple of days,” Joydev Dutt, a Red Crescent volunteer from Barguna District, told IRIN. He has spent hours riding around on his bicycle in heavy rain with a megaphone hurled over his shoulder. “People are responding to our warning. Almost all people in this cyclone-prone area have been evacuated.” 

According to local government officials, 700,000 to 800,000 people have been evacuated in 13 coastal districts under the country’s Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP), operated jointly by the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society and the government. 

The programme operates an extensive telecommunications network, including radio comunication between volunteers and CPP headquarters in Dhaka. 

To receive meteorological storm warnings, each of the 3,291 unit team leaders is provided with a transistor radio. To disseminate warning signals within the community, each team, comprised of 15 volunteers, is given a megaphone, a hand siren, a flag, and a signal light, while team leaders also get a bicycle or motorcycle, depending on the terrain and remoteness of the area. 

Bangladesh Minister of Disaster Management and Relief Abul Hassan Mahmud Ali said the government had finalized all necessary preparations. 

“At least 3,770 shelters [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/76490/BANGLADESH-Cyclone-shelters-save-lives-but-more-needed ] are ready to protect cyclone-affected people. The government also instructed the authorities concerned to prepare all primary schools in coastal areas to shelter affected people,” he said, adding that all public holidays for local government workers had been cancelled. 

The government has also prepared one medical team for every union (smallest administrative unit), two for every sub-district and five for every district, while 100 tons of food will be provided to each of the 13 districts at risk. Twenty-two naval ships are on standby to assist in the rescue operation, he said. 

The category-1 cyclone, with wind gusts of 85-90km per hour over the next 24-36 hours, is expected to hit just north of Chittagong, near the border with Myanmar, according to an update issued on 15 May [ http://reliefweb.int/report/myanmar/un-ocha-flash-update-5-cyclone-mahasen-bangladesh-and-myanmar ] by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). 

All port operations, as well as flights into Chittagong and Cox’s Bazaar have been cancelled. 

According to the latest estimates, more than four million people are living in high risk areas (districts of Chittagong and Cox’s Bazaar). 

Myanmar 

Evacuation efforts are also under way in neighbouring Myanmar’s Rakhine State, where more than 140,000 Muslim Rohingyas [ http://www.irinnews.org/report/96801/Briefing-Myanmar-s-Rohingya-crisis ] were displaced during two bouts of sectarian violence in 2012. 

“We are assisting the relocation in some areas by working with the communities and the state government to move vulnerable people to safer ground quickly, based on the principles of voluntariness and safety,” said Barbara Manzi, OCHA’s head of office in Sittwe. 

According to government figures released on 15 May, more than 35,500 people have been relocated from Sittwe, Minby, Myauk U, Kyauktaw, Rathedaung, Myebon and Pauktaw (townships) since 13 May, in line with stage 1 of the government’s three-stage disaster preparedness plan. 

The internally displace persons (IDPs) are being relocated to higher ground and, where possible, will be temporarily housed in government buildings, schools and mosques. 

“There has been some resistance by local residents and IDPs,” Myanmar's presidential spokesman Ye Htut said. “However, it’s imperative for everyone in the community to work together on this.” 

Burmese authorities are now calling on ethnic Buddhist Rakhine and Muslim Rohingyas to set aside their differences and come together, given the potential for a humanitarian crisis. 

Earlier this week, one of several boats carrying IDPs from a flood-prone and exposed camp off the coast of Rakhine struck rocks and capsized. Fifty-eight people are missing, feared drowned, the government says. 

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]]></body><pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/98046/Evacuation-volunteers-fan-out-in-Bangladesh</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201305160959430064t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">DHAKA 16 May 2013 (IRIN) - Some 50,000 volunteers in coastal communities across southern Bangladesh are out and about warning people to move to higher ground ahead of Cyclone Mahasen. Hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated so far.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Bangladesh, Myanmar brace for Cyclone Mahasen</title><pubDate>Mon, 13 May 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201305130811540320t.jpg" />]]>BANGKOK 13 May 2013 (IRIN) - Bangladesh and Myanmar are bracing for Cyclone Mahasen, a storm which could affect millions in the region, the UN has warned.</description><body><![CDATA[BANGKOK 13 May 2013 (IRIN) - Bangladesh and Myanmar are bracing for Cyclone Mahasen, a storm which could affect millions in the region, the UN has warned. 

“We are fully prepared and coordination systems are in place,” Mohammad Abdul Wazed, additional secretary of the Bangladesh Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, told IRIN on 13 May from Dhaka, noting that local disaster management committees at district and sub-district level had already been activated. 

“Starting yesterday, we have been broadcasting storm warnings every 30 minutes,” said Myanmar's presidential spokesman Ye Htut. “As a precautionary effort, some people in low-lying areas of Rakhine State have already relocated.” 

According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), a red storm alert remains in effect for Mahasen, also known as tropical Cyclone O1B, just east-northeast of Sri Lanka, now moving northwards across the Bay of Bengal towards both countries. 

Set to reach land on 16 May, the storm is expected to strike just south of the Bangladesh port city of Chittagong, but could, depending upon its final trajectory, bring life-threatening conditions for millions of people in northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar’s Rakhine State, OCHA warned on 12 May [ http://reliefweb.int/report/myanmar/bangladesh-myanmar-tropical-cyclone-mahasen-ocha-flash-update-2-12-may-2013 ].

Bangladesh 

Over the past week, parts of northeast India and Bangladesh have received 6-12 inches of rainfall so additional heavy rain will likely produce widespread flooding and possible mudslides. In the coastal Bangladesh city of Chittagong, a city of 2.5 million people, more than 15 inches of rain were recorded in the past eight days. 

Currently, the cyclone alert signal remains at Level 3 (out of 6), whereby fishermen are advised to return from sea. Once Level 4 is reached, a meeting of the cyclone preparedness committee (headed by the secretary of the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief and made up of representatives of government, Red Cross and civil society) takes place, at which point plans for evacuations will be made, Wazed explained. 

“We think Level 4 may be announced today,” he said, adding that he was awaiting word from the Bangladesh Meteorology Department. 

To date, the Department of Disaster Management has initiated preparations covering: vulnerability and risk analysis - with regular monitoring of the cyclone’s trajectory; pre-positioning of emergency relief items; information management; local level preparedness; and resource mobilization. 

Currently, humanitarian agencies in Bangladesh are revising their contingency plans for all 13 districts in the cyclone belt, including the pre-positioning of stocks in areas deemed most vulnerable. 

Myanmar 

The Burmese government is taking similar action. The Met Office is warning of heavy rain in the central region, especially in the townships of Magway, Sagaing and Mandalay, with a risk of landslides and flooding if the cyclone passes through coastal areas of western Rakhine State. 

On 15 May, rain and a thunderstorm have been predicted in the morning, followed by increasing wind and rain, as well as flash flooding later in the day. 

Aid workers are particularly concerned about the 140,000 mostly Rohingya [ http://www.irinnews.org/report/96801/Briefing-Myanmar-s-Rohingya-crisis ] internally displaced persons (IDPs) living in makeshift camps in Rakhine, many of them in low-lying coastal areas susceptible to tidal surges. 

“The potential impact of the cyclone could vastly increase this risk,” said Jane Lonsdale, acting country director for Oxfam in Myanmar. “It is vital that the government takes swift action to ensure all communities, including those that are currently displaced, are in safe locations in preparation for the potential impact,” she said - a call the government has already begun to heed. 

“The government has been very proactive and assigned responsibility to the Rakhine State Government who immediately activated the emergency response committee at state and township levels, and activated their Disaster Reduction Plan which includes relocation and evacuation plans. They have developed a three-stage action process, depending on the severity of the storm, with the third stage being evacuation of a large number of IDPs using military assets,” said Kirsten Mildren, a spokeswoman for OCHA in Bangkok. 

In March, UN agencies and NGOs in Rakhine developed a Preparedness Plan [ http://reliefweb.int/report/myanmar/inter-agency-preparednesscontingency-plan-rakhine-state-myanmar-march-2013 ] for the country’s annual rainy season, which includes contingencies for storms such as this. The plan identifies the immediate shelter needs of 69,000 people living in the most vulnerable low-lying areas as the top priority: They live in flood-prone camps and/or tents and makeshift shelters which will not withstand the rains. 

According to experts, cyclones that have hit Bangladesh and Myanmar in the past have proven particularly deadly. In 2008, Tropical Cyclone Nargis [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/92616/MYANMAR-Three-years-later-still-no-shelter ] left more than 100,000 dead in southern Myanmar, while in 1991, Cyclone Marian [ http://www.irinnews.org/report/96555/BANGLADESH-Cyclone-shelters-for-livestock-too ] killed more than 100,000 in Bangladesh. 

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]]></body><pubDate>Mon, 13 May 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/98024/Bangladesh-Myanmar-brace-for-Cyclone-Mahasen</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201305130811540320t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">BANGKOK 13 May 2013 (IRIN) - Bangladesh and Myanmar are bracing for Cyclone Mahasen, a storm which could affect millions in the region, the UN has warned.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Analysis: Getting governments to cough up for DRR</title><pubDate>Thu, 09 May 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201301091116460112t.jpg" />]]>AQABA 09 May 2013 (IRIN) - Investing in preparation for potential disasters is a “no brainer”, Elizabeth Longworth, director of the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), told a recent disaster risk reduction (DRR) conference in Aqaba, Jordan.</description><body><![CDATA[AQABA 09 May 2013 (IRIN) - Investing in preparation for potential disasters is a “no brainer”, Elizabeth Longworth, director of the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), told a recent disaster risk reduction (DRR) conference in Aqaba, Jordan.

And yet a report [ https://ochanet.unocha.org/p/Documents/WEB%20Humanitarianism%20in%20the%20Network%20Age%20vF%20single.pdf ] published last month by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said DRR funding accounts for only 3 percent of humanitarian aid and just 1 percent of all other development assistance.

Last year (seen as a relatively quiet year by natural disaster experts), the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) [ http://cred01.epid.ucl.ac.be/f/CredCrunch31.pdf ] recorded 310 natural disasters, leading to 9,930 deaths affecting 106 million people.

In total in the last three years, disasters have caused more than US$300 billion of recorded damage [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97655/Tallying-natural-disaster-related-losses ].

So, if the scale of the damage is not in dispute, why is DRR not better resourced? Has the funding argument not yet been won?

Improving funding

“Funding is a challenge,” said Jordan Ryan, director of the Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery at the UN Development Programme (UNDP).

“DRR doesn’t always get sufficient funding. Sometimes the donors don’t put a priority on disaster risk. They don’t always come through. So, I think we need even more attention.”

But natural disaster experts are emphatic that DRR funding is fundamentally a good investment. Estimates vary about how much can be saved, but the most conservative figures say that every $1 spent on DRR is worth $4 later on.

One example of the difference preparation can make is in what is now Bangladesh where in 1970 the Bhola cyclone killed up to 500,000 people. Nearly four decades later when another destructive storm hit (Cyclone Aila, 2009), early warning systems, hundreds of cyclone shelters, and disaster volunteer networks helped keep the country’s death toll below 200.

When natural hazards meet unprepared communities, populations are left extremely vulnerable, as seen when Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar in 2008, a country without early warning systems or storm shelters.

Perceptions of the importance of disaster preparedness vary from country to country.

“In Japan people understand this is money well spent,” Kimio Takeya, visiting senior adviser for the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), told IRIN, saying the country had been buffeted by earthquakes, typhoons and floods in the last 50 years: “Everything hit Japan.”

This follows a clear pattern. Governments find it difficult to appreciate risk and the need for risk reduction, until disaster strikes.

Changing perceptions

“I suppose that if we had won the argument [about DRR funding], we wouldn’t be making the case for increased donor commitment anymore as much as we do, so I guess the simple answer is no, we haven’t won it yet. But I do also believe that it is changing,” said Jo Scheuer, team leader for DRR and recovery at UNDP.

“The recent events, including in Japan and US, have shown clearly that they disasters affect everybody. It is an increasing risk that we are facing, particularly in terms of climate change, and if you look at the global discussions around also humanitarian aid and the resilience debate, there is a clear movement - I would say a political will - to move away from just responding to humanitarian crises or disasters, to actually building resilience.”

For donors, agencies like UNDP make the argument that DRR spending can be a means of reducing the long-term emergency humanitarian aid needed annually to deal with each new natural disaster.

“Donors are now increasingly putting money into preparedness and resilience, so that there aren’t only these millions of dollars that are for response, but that you can actually prepare countries beforehand for building their resilience, particularly in urban cities, where there’s growing infrastructure and the risk of massive potential economic damage,” Aditi Banerjee, disaster risk management specialist in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank, told IRIN.

But beyond donors, experts say there needs to be a change of attitude in governments, which find it difficult to reallocate funds from areas like health and education to DRR.

“Of course it is very difficult to convince the political leaders or the people to spend money before the disaster. This needs something like far-sightedness,” said Takeya.

He has been looking at the impact of DRR spending on GDP growth. “We are modelling and trying to calculate and analyse for each country. There’s a definite positive pattern - we can show the evidence that… your GDP growth will go down without DRR investment,” he said.

Convincing governments that they are not yet spending what they should on DRR is crucial, said Longworth.

“The sustainability of DRR is when budget-holders, whether they be governments, local governments, or other entities actually start re-orientating their budget allocations to DRR, and that’s why we’re putting so much attention on the economic case. It is absolutely well established now that the scale of economic losses from disasters justifies significantly more investment in reducing risks.”

More data, a growing awareness of the link between the scale of a disaster and preparedness, and international initiatives like the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), agreed in January 2005 just after the Indian Ocean tsunami, have helped change perceptions about DRR.

For Banerjee at the World Bank, even in the MENA region, which has been less affected by natural disasters than others, thinking is clearly changing.

“To me this shift has been the most intense in MENA, because MENA is not typically a region that is like Asia or Latin America that is hit by a disaster every few months. It’s hit by big disasters but over time, which is why sometimes the institutional memory is forgotten. But in the five years that I’ve been here there’s been so much more dialogue on this.”

Using climate funds

One potential source of funding for DRR projects that garnered a lot of interest from delegates at March’s first DRR conference in the Arab world [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97941/Arab-cities-aim-to-build-resilience-to-natural-disasters ] is climate change resource streams.

“This is already happening. If you look at some of the projects, programmes, entities that have been funded from the various existing financial instruments related to climate change adaptation, many of those activities are actually classic DRR activities - from early warning systems to agricultural livelihood measures and so on,” said Scheuer.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is in charge of three climate funds: the Adaptation Fund, the Least Developed Countries Fund, and the Special Climate Change Fund, set up under the Kyoto Protocol to offset the negative effects of climate change in the developed world.

The first two projects [ http://irinnews.org/Report/90571/CLIMATE-CHANGE-Adaptation-Fund-starts-delivering ] under the Adaptation Fund were to help handle rising sea levels in Senegal, and water management in Honduras.

Another recent US$7.6 million project in northern Pakistan funded by the Adaptation Fund is to help communities better prepare for sudden glacial lake flooding.

“If it’s rising sea levels, or depleted water table, when you address it, you are reducing the risk, you’re also anticipating what’s coming in terms of global warming,” said Longworth.

Several Pacific countries are drawing up joint strategies at a national level to tackle DRR and climate change adaptation together.

“The issue here is not that you get a transfer from the climate pots into the disaster pots of money. The issue is that programmatically and substantively speaking, we make sure that we have the synergies between those two funding streams,” said Scheuer.

“It doesn’t matter where the money comes from; it matters that we address the issue of risk and build resilience,” he said.

But preparedness is not all about big money - much DRR work, experts stress, can be relatively cheap things like training volunteers, teaching basic first aid techniques, and making better use of tools like mobile phones that many people already have.

Sometimes it can even just be a question of remembering former ways of living that were more resilient in terms of natural hazards.

In Japan, flood prone areas in traditional communities normally had an elevated building somewhere in the area that people could escape to, with second floors commonly storing a boat to help residents escape.

Build back better

In reality, it is very difficult for governments to grasp the value of DRR until they have been the victim of a major disaster.

In the case of Algeria, it was only after the Boumerdès earthquake of 2003 and the deaths of around 3,500 people that the government beefed up regulations for the construction of schools and hospitals, according to Hichem Imouche from the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The same thing happened after the 1923 Great Kanto earthquake, which levelled most of Tokyo. Building regulations were strengthened again in Japan after the Great Hanshin earthquake near the city of Kobe in 1995; rubber blocks were placed under bridges and earthquake proof shelters constructed.

“Once disaster happens it is of course a bad situation but it is a chance to revise the way of thinking,” said Takeya.

No doubt the debate will move forward when DRR experts and officials meet on 19-23 May for the Fourth Session of the Global Platform for DRR [ http://www.preventionweb.net/globalplatform/2013/ ] in Geneva, Switzerland.

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]]></body><pubDate>Thu, 09 May 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/98003/Analysis-Getting-governments-to-cough-up-for-DRR</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201301091116460112t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">AQABA 09 May 2013 (IRIN) - Investing in preparation for potential disasters is a “no brainer”, Elizabeth Longworth, director of the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), told a recent disaster risk reduction (DRR) conference in Aqaba, Jordan.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Countering the radicalization of Kenya&apos;s youth</title><pubDate>Mon, 06 May 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201305031222150686t.jpg" />]]>NAIROBI 06 May 2013 (IRIN) - Unemployment, poverty and political marginalization are contributing to the Islamic radicalization of Kenya&apos;s youth, a situation experts say must be addressed through economic empowerment and inclusive policies.</description><body><![CDATA[NAIROBI 06 May 2013 (IRIN) - Unemployment, poverty and political marginalization are contributing to the Islamic radicalization of Kenya's youth, a situation experts say must be addressed through economic empowerment and inclusive policies.

Youth unemployment is extremely high, as are levels of political disenchantment. An estimated 75 percent of out-of-school youths are unemployed, according to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) [ http://kenya.usaid.gov/programs/education-and-youth/51 ]. 

"The unemployment crisis is a ticking bomb. Over 60 percent of the population is under 25. You cannot ignore that," said Yusuf Hassan, the Member of Parliament for Nairobi’s Kamukunji Constituency, which has a large Muslim population. "A huge and significant population is restless. And the gap between the rich and poor is getting wider."

"When access to resources is based on ethnic, cultural or religious characteristics or there is a growing divide between the 'haves' and 'have nots' in countries and communities, economic conditions further contribute to instability," says a new report by the Institute for Security Studies in Africa (ISS) [ http://www.issafrica.org/assessing-the-vulnerability-of-kenyan-youths-to-radicalisation-and-extremism ]. "Countries confronted by large differences between 'haves' and 'have nots' are additionally vulnerable to conflict, which may include resorting to acts of terrorism."

Marginalized and radicalized

A string of grenade attacks - some allegedly by Somali Islamist insurgent group Al-Shabab or their sympathizers - have occurred in the Kenyan towns of Garissa, Mombasa and the capital, Nairobi, since Kenya began its military incursion in Somalia in October 2011 [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/94018/KENYA-SOMALIA-A-risky-intervention ].

But Islamic radicalization is not new to Kenya. Kenyans were involved in the 1998 US embassy bombings in Nairobi and the Tanzania city of Dar es Salaam; the coordinated attacks, which killed more than 220 people, were Africa's first suicide bombings by Al-Qaeda's East Africa cell. In a 2002 dual car-bomb and suicide attack on a hotel and plane in Mombasa, at least one of the suspects was Kenyan.

Muslims make up an estimated 11 percent [ http://www.knbs.or.ke/docs/PresentationbyMinisterforPlanningrevised.pdf ] of Kenya’s population; large Muslim communities can be found in the country’s northeast and in the coastal region. Traditionally, Kenya’s Muslims are moderate, with the community peacefully seeking participation in politics. But ISS pointed to the historical political marginalization of Muslims - right from negotiations for Kenya’s independence, in which ethnic Somalis, who are overwhelmingly Muslim, were not represented - as a contributor to the radicalization of young people. 

“Although Kenya is a secular state, it is essentially a Christian country because of the dominant Christian population… There is the perception that Islam is ‘alien’, despite the fact that it came to Kenya before Christianity,” the report notes.

The report also found that some young Kenyan Muslims have been influenced by radical preaching, which leads them to believe that wars being fought against Muslims abroad - for example, in Afghanistan and Iraq - are part of “a global campaign against Islam”.

According to a 2011 report [ http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2011/433 ] by the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea, non-Somali Kenyan nationals constituted the largest and most organized non-Somali group within Al-Shabab.

Taking advantage of vulnerable youth 

"We've already seen the rumblings of 'Pwani si Kenya' [Coast is not Kenya, the slogan of a separatist group in Kenya’s Coast Province] [ http://www.irinnews.org/report/96630/Briefing-Kenya-s-coastal-separatists-menace-or-martyrs ] - radicalized, marginalized, poverty-stricken young people are saying, ‘we don't belong to Kenya’," said Hassan, who was seriously injured in a 2012 grenade attack in his constituency. 

The ISS report found that Islamist militants were exploiting sub-standard socioeconomic conditions, and the government's inability to provide basic services, by positioning themselves as providers of assistance. "Creating or infiltrating bona fide charity organizations... is a sure way to win the general support of ordinary people," the report said. 

The report points to the growing influence of the Muslim Youth Centre (MYC), a Kenyan group whose objectives include promoting community health and social welfare, but which also advocates "an extreme interpretation of Islam and prepares members to travel to Somalia for 'jihad' [holy war], thus attracting the attention of security agencies in Kenya and abroad." According to the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea [ http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2012/544 ], Al-Shabab announced a merger with MYC in 2012.

Hassan Sheikh, a cleric in the northeastern town of Garissa, said extremist groups have taken control of many mosques and Islamic schools, setup orphanages, and employed teachers and imams.

"North Kenya is a hub for mercenaries. You can easily get [attract] them - it’s out of poverty,” said Khalif Aabdulla, a civil rights activist from Wajir, also northeastern Kenya.
NGOs and government officials in Kenya acknowledge an urgent need to develop a counter-radicalization policy to prevent young people from turning to violent groups, and some say Kenya’s newly elected government may be an opportunity to tackle the issue. NGOs say the government must do more than promote economic empowerment among marginalized communities; it must also foster a sense of belonging.

"There are some efforts to use the Council of Imams or Islamic Preachers' Association to talk to the youths," said Mwalimu Mati, CEO of governance watchdog Mars Group Kenya. "The moderates are trying to assist the government, but I can't say it's a complete success." 

Counter-productive counter-terrorism

"The problem is exacerbated by counter-terrorism programmes by the Kenya police who carry out mass raids rather than targeted arrests. It keeps the youths feeling repressed generally. They then identify that as oppression based on religion," Mati said. He says the problem is primarily in North Eastern District, Eastleigh and Coast Province. 

The ISS report describes the current approach as "collective punishment based on perceptions".

"Most perceptions are completely wrong, especially that Somali nationals are responsible for attacks in Kenya or that Kenya is an innocent bystander when acts of terrorism are committed on its soil," it stated. 

Following attacks in Nairobi, ethnic Somalis - both Kenyan and foreign nationals - said they experienced xenophobia [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/94090/KENYA-Xenophobia-fear-follow-Nairobi-blasts ] and lived in constant fear of arrest.

Under the government of former president Mwai Kibaki, both the Ministry for Peace-building and Conflict Management and the Ministry for Education told IRIN that they had no programmes to address radicalization.

The Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sport said they ran "empowerment programmes" in conjunction with the formal education system. But as Leah Rotitch, a director in the education ministry, said, "The people Al-Shabab target are normally young people who are out of school."

The persecution felt by ethnic Somalis and other Muslim communities has only increased [ http://www.kenya-today.com/news/kenyan-muslims-fear-the-worst-over-proposals-to-boost-police-powers ] in recent years, with police allegedly engaging in extrajudicial use of force and even killings of terror suspects; the police deny these claims.

"Since the passing of the new anti-terror bill, we have seen a huge spike in extrajudicial killings. And terrorism has become an easy label," said Horn of Africa analyst Abdullahi Halakhe. "Such efforts only succeed in alienating the local population, who usually have critical human intelligence. They are turning the Islamic radicalization of young people into a matter of national security, making those young people their enemies, thus making it worse."

The ISS report calls for "introspection on the part of the police officer stopping and searching a person because he looks Somali".

Reaching the young

Tom Mboya, who established the Inuka Kenya Trust in response to the role young people played in perpetrating the post-election violence of 2007-2008, says now is an opportunity to engage the youth. "They're what should be the engine of this country," he told IRIN.

"Devolution is positive," he says, referring to the process of decentralizing power from Nairobi [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97726/Briefing-Devolution-to-transform-Kenya ], which was set in motion by Kenya's new constitution. Mboya believes this process will create opportunities for young people. But, he says, "in parts of the country more prone to violent extremism, there needs to be policy in place. The leadership will have to be more alive to that problem".

A focus on young people formed a key part of new President Uhuru Kenyatta's election campaign - his government will now have to work out an acceptable and effective approach in tackling the issue of violent extremism. 

Mars Group's Mati says using moderate imams to neutralize potentially radical youths does not work because young people no longer regard them as credible. "It's a generation gap - control over youths has somehow become difficult. In the old days, what an imam said went. The radical preachers are young," he said.

Hadley Muchela, programmes manager for Kenyan rights group Independent Medico-legal Unit, says targeting violent extremism will require sensitivity because, thanks to the way the issue has been handled in the past, it is often seen as an indictment against all of Islam. "You find very few Kenyans willing to go into it," he said. 

Abdikadir Sheikh, who works with the Sustainable Support and Advocacy Programme, a local NGO, said the group has set up a pilot project to dissuade youth in the northeastern towns of Dadaab and Garissa from joining extremist groups. 

"We are very careful or [we could] lose our lives; you can’t confront radicalization directly - you need different approaches," he told IRIN. "We have established a strong team of more than 600 youths… some have so far joined colleges. We plan to work with the county governments.” 
The ISS report warns that "there is no quick fix for the level of radicalization seen in Kenya".

"The biggest threat to stability in Kenya will be if extremists succeed in dividing Kenya between Muslim and non-Muslim," the report said. 

jh/na/kr/rz

]]></body><pubDate>Mon, 06 May 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97982/Countering-the-radicalization-of-Kenya-apos-s-youth</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201305031222150686t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">NAIROBI 06 May 2013 (IRIN) - Unemployment, poverty and political marginalization are contributing to the Islamic radicalization of Kenya&apos;s youth, a situation experts say must be addressed through economic empowerment and inclusive policies.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Arab cities aim to build resilience to natural disasters</title><pubDate>Mon, 29 Apr 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2010/201008101236340196t.jpg" />]]>AQABA 29 April 2013 (IRIN) - Prevention may be better than a cure, but for the authorities in Arab cities and towns, natural disasters up to now have been largely about coping with them after they have taken place.</description><body><![CDATA[AQABA 29 April 2013 (IRIN) - Prevention may be better than a cure, but for the authorities in Arab cities and towns, natural disasters up to now have been largely about coping with them after they have taken place.

“We react to disasters without any planning; we just go for the response, and you know that without any planning you can’t do the proper things,” Abdulmalek Al-Jolahy, first deputy minister at Yemen’s Ministry of Public Works and Highways, told IRIN.

But disaster prevention experts say the region took a step in the right direction this month, with the official finalization of the Aqaba Declaration on Disaster Risk Reduction in Cities. [ http://www.preventionweb.net/files/31093_aqabadeclarationenglishfinaldraft.pdf ]

“We want some modest, achievable targets for improving DRR [disaster risk reduction] in Arab cities,” said Zubair Murshed, a DRR regional adviser with the UN Development Programme (UNDP) in Cairo, speaking at last month’s first ever regional conference [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97685/Disaster-Risk-Reduction-in-the-Arab-world ] on the subject in Aqaba, Jordan.

City mayors and representatives from some 40 cities and towns in the region, including Aqaba, Gaza, Mogadishu and Tunis, drew up a provisional agreement on non-binding commitments over the next five years at March’s Aqaba conference, a document which this month became final following further consultations.

The targets include devoting at least 1 percent of cities’ annual budgets to DRR, preparing a risk assessment report to guide urban development planning, and implementing at least one law to improve safety.

The Arab officials agreed to meet in 2015 to review their performance, though otherwise there is no formal mechanism to monitor progress.

If officials follow through on their agreement it would be an important step in reducing risk - including from flash floods, landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis, droughts, sandstorms and tropical cyclones - for the region’s inhabitants, over 55 percent of whom live in urban areas.

Rapid urban growth

Population growth in the Arab region is among the highest in the world, with the urban population more than quadrupling since 1970 and expected to double again by 2050, according to UN-Habitat’s State of Arab Cities 2012 report. [ http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=3320 ]

“The region’s environment and wealth are increasingly concentrated in a small number of highly vulnerable cities and many such communities are at risk from multiple hazards,” said Djillali Benouar, director of the Built Environment Research Laboratory at the University of Science and Technology Houari Boumediene in Algeria.

“Many recent disasters in the last decades had their main impact in urban areas where there is a large concentration of people with a heavy dependency on infrastructure and services.”

The problem has been exacerbated by the influx of people displaced by conflict who often settle on sub-prime land - either flood prone lowlands or unstable hills, and with 87 percent of the region classed as desert, urban centres play a vital role in the economy - making any disaster in a major city a national catastrophe.

“Many of these cities are almost equal to the country - Djibouti for example. Take Cairo and Beirut as well. You only have one major civil airport in Lebanon and it’s in Beirut,” said UNDP’s Murshed, adding that many of these Arab cities were sitting on major seismic fault lines.

The past destruction of cities like Damascus, Aleppo, Beirut, Algiers and Alexandria is an indication of the potential threat from earthquakes alone.

Disaster risk experts say the Arab region has been relatively lucky in the last century, but even so, there have been more than 270 disasters, [ http://www.emdat.be/ ] and at least 150,000 deaths in the past three decades.

Natural hazards may be impossible to avoid, but good DRR can make the difference between an event that destroys growth for many years to come, or simply knocks the city back for a few months.

“If cities and local governments decide to tackle these issues then they will really reduce global risk,” said Margareta Wahlstrom, special representative of the UN Secretary-General for DRR.

The motto: Be prepared

Natural hazards become disasters especially when they hit ill-prepared vulnerable communities, but cities can do more to be better prepared - from setting up early warning systems, building the institutions and infrastructure to better handle disasters, to gathering an accurate picture of the risks they face.

The Jordanian port city of Aqaba was recognized last month as the UN’s first “role model city for DRR” and has implemented a number of measures to reduce risk.

In a corner of the Aqaba Secondary School for Boys a shipping container provides a base for the city’s Neighbourhoods Disaster Volunteers. Inside shelves are lined with first aid kits, pick axes, power tools, reflective jackets, among other things, all regularly inspected by the volunteers.

“In this team, we have to be prepared 24 hours a day to help people and reduce the effects of disasters. By being prepared, we can manage any disaster,” said Nouh Al Khattab, one of the volunteers.

They perform regular drills to practice disaster response, says Khaled Abu Aisha, head of the DRR unit at the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA).

“The volunteers are normal people just like you and I - living in the neighbourhood; women, men, young, small, normal employees. We meet twice a month.”

Jordan’s three main cities (Amman, Zarqa and Irbid) - with more than 70 percent of the population - are 30km or less from the Dead Sea Transform fault line which divides the African and Arabian tectonic plates.

Aqaba sits close to the fault line as well, and a 7.3 earthquake in 1995 killed at least eight people and damaged buildings throughout the city. Over the last 2,500 years, the area has seen some 50 serious earthquakes.

In 2006-7 UNDP helped ASEZA carry out a seismic risk assessment of the city to determine vulnerabilities.

While earthquakes may be a natural phenomenon unlinked to human activity, construction norms can make a big difference to the scale of the disaster. As Jalal Al Dabeek, director of the Urban Planning and DRR Centre at An Najah National University, Palestine, says, “Buildings kill people, not earthquakes.”

“Until now the problem is that the minimum requirements are not there yet. We are facing an Arab reality that construction in the Arab world is a long way from the minimum requirements.”

Engineers and officials are drawing up a regional Arab building code, but even when it is agreed, the regulations will need implementing and enforcing in practice.

Meanwhile, risk experts fear most Arab cities continue to be almost completely unprepared.

“We are definitely worried. Many cities like Aqaba are prepared but at the same time there are others which are not really prepared, and this is a worrying thing,” Shahira Wahbi, head of Sustainable Development and International Cooperation at the League of Arab States, told IRIN.

Flash floods

The danger of uncontrolled construction on wadis was highlighted during the 2009 floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, when more than 150 people were killed after a sudden downpour (90mm of rainfall in four hours - twice the average yearly rainfall).

Many of those who died in Jeddah were migrant workers living in slums build in the wadis. A highway junction built in one of the wadis was also submerged killing drivers and creating widespread destruction.

The Al-Shallalah community in Aqaba, built near a dry wadi, was hit by flash floods in 2010 causing several deaths. ASEZA decided to move the 5,000 residents from the area: 700 families went to a new development in Al-Karamah, while the rest were given vacant land and compensation.

Flooding prevention can often require major expenditure. In Al Mukalla, the capital of Yemen’s Hadhramaut Governorate, three river valleys converge on the port city creating frequent floods. Residents dug a 600-metre channel through the city centre to allow the waters to flow unhindered into the ocean.

Resilient cities

To encourage cities to better prepare, the UN Office for DRR (UNISDR) [ http://www.unisdr.org/ ] in 2010 launched the Making Cities Resilient campaign, encouraging local municipalities to establish DRR programmes.

Of the 1,419 cities and towns that have joined the scheme, around 270 are in the Arab world, almost all of them in Lebanon where 87 percent of the population lives in urban areas. In February, Nablus became the first Palestinian city to join the resilience campaign.

But overall, DRR experts say most Arab cities continue to prioritize other more palpable issues like water shortages and security, and are almost completely unprepared for major disasters like earthquakes, despite the devastating impact they can have.

“The people are not prepared. Nobody talks about that. It will be panic. People will be killed, not just by the earthquake and things falling down, but from the panic because they don’t know what to do,” Benouar from the university of Science and Technology Houari Boumediene in Algeria, told IRIN.

jj/cb


]]></body><pubDate>Mon, 29 Apr 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97941/Arab-cities-aim-to-build-resilience-to-natural-disasters</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2010/201008101236340196t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">AQABA 29 April 2013 (IRIN) - Prevention may be better than a cure, but for the authorities in Arab cities and towns, natural disasters up to now have been largely about coping with them after they have taken place.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Imagining a major quake in Kathmandu</title><pubDate>Fri, 26 Apr 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201304261101330697t.jpg" />]]>KATHMANDU 26 April 2013 (IRIN) - It is the nightmare scenario aid workers and government officials have long feared: a massive earthquake striking Nepal’s densely populated Kathmandu Valley, with tens of thousands feared dead.</description><body><![CDATA[KATHMANDU 26 April 2013 (IRIN) - It is the nightmare scenario aid workers and government officials have long feared: a massive earthquake striking Nepal’s densely populated Kathmandu Valley, with tens of thousands feared dead.

In terms of per capita casualty risk, the valley - as the area is known locally - is the most dangerous place in the world [ http://www.geohaz.org/projects/gesi.html ].

The capital city and its surrounding suburbs of some 2.5 million people sit in one of the most seismically active areas of the world; declining or non-existent construction standards, haphazard urban development and a population growing 4 percent annually [ http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/04/01/managing-nepals-urban-transition ] have compounded the risk.

While disaster preparedness awareness has increased, protracted political instability [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/95761/Analysis-Humanitarian-fallout-from-Nepal-apos-s-constitutional-stalemate ] has weakened risk reduction potential. The last major earthquake (1934) flattened Kathmandu, killing thousands and destroying 20 percent of the city’s buildings.

IRIN sat down with leading international and Nepalese experts at both the National Society for Earthquake Technology [ http://www.nset.org.np/nset2012/ ] and the Nepal Risk Reduction Consortium [ http://un.org.np/coordinationmechanism/nrrc ] to determine how such an earthquake might play out today.

1005am early May - An intensity IX (Mercalli scale measure) [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/93862/HOW-TO-Measure-an-earthquake ] earthquake hits Kathmandu Valley when school is in session and people are at work.

1009 - Immediate aftershocks stop.  Some 60 percent of buildings have been damaged or completely collapsed. Few schools remain standing. Schoolchildren [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/81805/NEPAL-Schoolchildren-face-earthquake-risk ] in Kathmandu are 400 times more likely to be killed by an earthquake than those in Kobe, Japan [ http://www.preventionweb.net/files/5573_gesireport.pdf ].

The US Geological Survey [ http://www.usgs.gov/ ] first reports the earthquake, information some newswires pick up, but few details emerge. Mobile phone towers are damaged severely, internet communication is down and electricity coverage is out.

1045 – Significant aftershock lasts 90 seconds. Now 80 percent of buildings are damaged or destroyed. Only a handful of healthcare facilities remain standing.

Residents work feverishly to dig out loved ones using nothing more than their bare hands. The first 72 hours are seen as critical.

A 2001 seismic risk assessment [ http://www.unisdr.org/2009/campaign/pdf/wdrc-2008-2009-information-kit.pdf ] of one of the capital’s (and country’s) main hospitals [ http://www.patanhospital.org.np/ ] identified weaknesses, which were only partially addressed as hospitals failed to get the funding they needed.

In the quake’s epicentre, only doctors and health workers who were on duty when the quake hit are able to work; others are either injured or blocked from reaching health facilities due to rubble [ http://un.org.np/sites/default/files/2010-10-19-Presentation-NSET.pdf ]. Many have died.

1200 noon - Domestic trained “light” search and rescue teams [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97831/Nepal-to-boost-search-and-rescue-capabilities ] (able to search the surface of a collapsed structure but not venture inside) begin their work. However, capacity is limited and many teams have not been properly trained.

Although deployed, international urban search and rescue teams are still unable to reach Kathmandu.

Access to facilities and vehicles is thwarted by rubble, and communications are spotty as only radio and satellite phones function. Foreign embassies use their radio systems to check for survivors.

The government’s National Emergency Operations Centre [ http://www.moha.gov.np/en/divisions/national-emergency-operation-center-25.html ] provides the first official - and skeletal - report on the earthquake.

3pm - Embassies attempt to direct their citizens to meeting points, but databases are not updated to reflect current numbers in the city. Travel by foot is almost impossible. First reports of looting begin. The air is still choked with dust. Parents rush towards completely or partially destroyed school buildings to search for their children, but movement is complicated by debris and safety concerns. Some fires from collapsed gas canisters and fallen electric wires spread.

5pm - International newswires carry reports on the earthquake. “A long-predicted earthquake of IX-intensity has hit the capital of Nepal. Kathmandu has suffered devastation in the initial quake and continued tremors. Humanitarian officials estimate tens of thousands missing or dead. Communications are routed through satellite phones, which are in limited supply.”

6pm - As the sun sets, air remains a thick fog of dust. Some people are able to clear space in the rubble, set up tents, light fires to cook and stay warm. Survivors who have emergency food supplies are careful to ration as well as protect them against looting.

Day 2: The government estimates the initial death toll at 150,000.

As the Oxfam Nepal country director, Scott Faiia, told IRIN: “Haiti was an island, so that meant nautical access was possible. Kathmandu is far more isolated than an island.”

There is no vehicle access to Kathmandu as countless bridges and roads into the city have been knocked out.

The airport, the only lifeline [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97766/Earthquake-proofing-Nepal-s-at-risk-airport ] for relief deliveries, has been damaged. C-130 military cargo planes, capable of landing on a short runway space, can land if 1,900 metres of runway remain intact, but a thorough evaluation of the airport is needed before this can happen. The assessment is under way, but with most major roads impassable, getting evaluators to the airport is taking longer than expected. Necessary repairs may take up to a week before flights can land.

There is no safe water supply in the city because pipes have been ruptured. Without an emergency, a break on a main pipe takes two days to repair on average. There are thousands of breaks throughout the city’s main lines, which do not include breaks in lines going to houses. Water tankers (trucks equipped with tanks) are full but many drivers are dead, injured, or unreachable. Those who can access and operate the tankers find all but main roads completely blocked.

With stores and markets in rubble, looting continues. Surviving police patrols are spread thin, and are pitted against residents desperate for food, water, and medical supplies.

One week: Death toll revised to 70,000

International aid workers begin building a humanitarian “hub” outside Simara in southeastern Nepal to receive relief supplies from India by rail through the Nepali border town of Birgunj, for onward transfer to Kathmandu by helicopter and, eventually, road.

Assessments have begun to give a better idea of the damage, but information is still limited. Health facilities and professionals have settled into a 24/7 routine of trying to meet acute trauma needs; facilities, staffing and supplies remain severely limited.

Critical international personnel are arriving by helicopter. Air space, frequency of flights and a memorandum of understanding to allow humanitarian workers to transit through neighbouring India without a visa are under negotiation between the two countries, even while India grapples with collateral damage from the quake. Lifesaving equipment destined for Nepal is stuck in Indian customs [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/94648/GLOBAL-Why-international-disaster-law-matters ] in the cities of New Delhi and Kolkata.

Access is still restricted to helicopters. Heavy machinery that survived the quake is now clearing space for helipads and food drops. Embassies have evacuated most staff. Relief workers have arrived from around the world, but are stretched thin.

Of the five deep-drilled water wells around Kathmandu Valley, three are operational, so there is some water coming in, but not nearly enough. Petrol to fuel water pumps is running low because of over pumping and some looting of the fuel.

The situation around the water wells is tense as thousands queue for small amounts of water, which local government officials ration along with water purification tablets. A growing number drink untreated water, putting them at risk of disease.

Fuel for cremations is limited; there is no cold storage for bodies or body parts, which are then discarded haphazardly in burning piles around the city. The smell of burning cadavers permeates the still dusty air.

Hospitals are militarized with security forces standing guard to protect healthcare workers and patients from looting and violence. International NGOs have set up some temporary triage tents, but medical needs outstrip services.

One month

Death toll: 210,000 (and two million displaced)

Monsoon rains have begun, flooding temporary settlements, contaminating water supplies and resulting in the spread of infectious diseases.

More than 550 humanitarian relief organizations are now operating in Nepal. Some are working with communities outside Kathmandu Valley that are hosting survivors who fled the aftermath. Village food supplies are limited as populations swell. Road damage limits ground transportation. Helicopters are the only way to distribute relief goods; scant supplies make it to the hills and mountains outside Kathmandu where a number of survivors are now living with family and friends.

The government has resumed operations in temporary buildings in the south of the country along the border with India some 60km from the quake’s epicentre. Some 30 percent of civil servants died in the earthquake; another 20 percent left the capital and have not returned.

The government has replenished the ranks with some controversial appointments, sowing seeds for a potential political backlash in a country that has already gone through six heads of government in the past five years (with the most recent appointment in March), while failing to agree on a post-conflict constitution after a decade-long civil war.

People who have chronic illnesses and take medication have trouble accessing it. People living with HIV who get their anti-retroviral therapy medication in monthly disbursements from central hospitals now struggle to get supplies. Marginalized groups such as men who have sex with men (MSM) who often access vital health services through local NGOs must now go to mainstream health facilities, risking discrimination and violence [ http://www.odihpn.org/humanitarian-exchange-magazine/issue-55/making-disaster-risk-reduction-and-relief-programmes-lgbtiinclusive-examples-from-nepal ].

Risk of sexual violence against women and children increases in Nepal’s temporary settlements despite NGO “protection” efforts [ http://www.chrgj.org/press/docs/Haiti%20Sexual%20Violence%20March%202011.pdf ]. International media attention shifts focus from missing individuals to the failure of the humanitarian response.

One year - and beyond

In Haiti, two years after the earthquake some 75 percent of the rubble in the recovering capital, Port-au-Prince, had been cleared [ http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2012/10/20121022137789.html#axzz2RFq5WwnS ].

Haiti’s capital covers about 39sqkm; the 30-second quake created 10 million cubic metres of rubble. Kathmandu Valley is roughly 570sqkm, or the size of Singapore.

After two years, arterial roads in Nepal are functional again, but much rubble remains.

Local government offices and NGOs have erected temporary schools, but attendance is patchy and affected by monsoon rains. With facilities overcrowded and teachers few, children attend school in shifts. Banks and some businesses are running again, but with limited road access to the valley, commodities are prohibitively expensive and many survivors continue to rely on aid rations. Long-term health effects, including a decline in mental health, continue to tax hospitals and other service providers.

Media begins to criticize aid agencies for lack of coordination, creating dependency and lack of a clear transition from emergency to recovery work.

Billions of dollars have been spent on relief efforts so far (some $3 billion were disbursed at the two-year mark in Haiti) [ http://www.lessonsfromhaiti.org/assistance-tracker/ ]; rebuilding contracts begin only one year after Nepal’s earthquake.

With so much funding and focus concentrated on Kathmandu, development elsewhere in the country has been neglected and longstanding grievances against the government and donors deepen.

Still recovering from a decade-long civil war that ended in 2006, the country has had no local elections since 1997 [ http://www.irinnews.org/report/95799/NEPAL-No-government-no-irrigation ]; a skeletal group of nationally-appointed administrators oversees everything from health administration to irrigation.

The final death toll is verified at 380,000.

kk/pt/cb

]]></body><pubDate>Fri, 26 Apr 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97925/Imagining-a-major-quake-in-Kathmandu</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201304261101330697t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">KATHMANDU 26 April 2013 (IRIN) - It is the nightmare scenario aid workers and government officials have long feared: a massive earthquake striking Nepal’s densely populated Kathmandu Valley, with tens of thousands feared dead.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Philippines’ natural disaster risks shift, along with experts</title><pubDate>Wed, 10 Apr 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201301111120140822t.jpg" />]]>MANILA 10 April 2013 (IRIN) - As the storm season approaches, officials in the Philippines are turning to seasoned storm emergency responders to help prepare communities that have historically been spared devastation but that now find themselves in harm’s way.</description><body><![CDATA[MANILA 10 April 2013 (IRIN) - As the storm season approaches, officials in the Philippines are turning to seasoned storm emergency responders to help prepare communities that have historically been spared devastation but that now find themselves in harm’s way. 

When Typhoon Bopha struck the southern Philippine island of Mindanao last December, it unleashed an unprecedented scale of devastation on the island’s northern and eastern coasts, particularly in farming regions once thought to be safe from such deadly weather events. 

Whipping up winds of up to 250km an hour, the typhoon - known locally as Pablo - was the strongest to have hit the southern region in nearly a century, and it was the deadliest storm in the world that year. 

One of the first responders was a disaster relief team deployed from the eastern Albay Province, a region once among the country’s most disaster-prone. 

Cedric Daep, who heads the Office of Civil Defence in Albay, sent 72 members to respond to the humanitarian needs of tens of thousands of people displaced by typhoon-triggered landslides and floods. 

"It caught practically all local government units and disaster response groups by surprise," Daep told IRIN. "They had no experience in such things, and were slow to react in the onset of sudden emergency." 

The typhoon affected over six million people, directly displacing about one million. More than 2,000 were either confirmed dead or are still reported missing. The storm also destroyed some 230,000 homes, as well as roads, telecommunications, bridges and community health centres, effectively cutting off many remote communities. 

Bringing in experts 

Daep said the national government realized at the onset it had to fly in outside experts, preferably those from communities with a long history of tackling such disasters. 

"By force of necessity, we became experts at disaster management, so we were sent to help out," Daep said. 

"When we arrived, we immediately set up technical support, as well prioritized bringing in supplies, food and water. Camp management was also strengthened - there was total chaos. None of the local officials were functioning; they were shell-shocked." 

Over the past two decades, Albay, in the eastern Bicol region, was the gateway for powerful typhoons blowing from the Pacific. It has seen some of the country’s most violent storms, as well as periodic eruptions of Mayon Volcano. 

Years of disasters honed residents’ survival skills, and the province is considered a leader in instituting early warning systems, as well as preventive evacuations. 

It is listed by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction as one of 29 "role model cities" [ http://www.unisdr.org/files/28240_rcreport.pdf ] that exemplify disaster risk reduction (DRR). 

However, over the past two years, Bicol has been relatively unscathed. Changing weather patterns have caused the most recent typhoons to move south, hitting Mindanao or the capital, Manila. 

Adapting to weather changes 

Loren Legarda, chair of the senate’s environment and climate change committee, said part of the government's climate change adaptation strategy is learning to divert resources to help less disaster-experienced communities. 

"We have to take action now [rather] than wait until it’s too late," Legarda told IRIN. "Our disaster risk reduction mechanism should be pro-active, [to] ensure communities are disaster-proof by making them more resilient." 

"The times have changed, so have the weather patterns," she said. 

Legarda said other communities must also learn from Daep's expertise and strive to follow the models used in Albay. 

"Communities that have yet to put up their own plans must begin making up short-term DRR programmes, expected by the time the storm season begins in June, as well as a long-term programme that will make them resilient," she said. 

In the aftermath of Typhoon Bopha, the government has intensified its disaster awareness campaign by distributing geo-hazard maps in newly devastated areas, as well as conducting rapid emergency management trainings and briefings for local officials. 

aag/pt/rz 

]]></body><pubDate>Wed, 10 Apr 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97816/Philippines-natural-disaster-risks-shift-along-with-experts</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201301111120140822t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">MANILA 10 April 2013 (IRIN) - As the storm season approaches, officials in the Philippines are turning to seasoned storm emergency responders to help prepare communities that have historically been spared devastation but that now find themselves in harm’s way.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Will Somalia get enough rain this year?</title><pubDate>Thu, 28 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2011/201108251054490156t.jpg" />]]>JOHANNESBURG 28 March 2013 (IRIN) - Parts of southern Somalia are yet to recover from the battering they took in 2010-2011, when severe drought followed excessive rain, and now the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) says insufficient rain may fall in the coming months. &quot;We are concerned - our forecast shows that there is 80 percent probability that rains could trend from normal to below normal across Somalia,&quot; said Gideon Galu, a regional FEWS NET scientist based in Africa.</description><body><![CDATA[JOHANNESBURG 28 March 2013 (IRIN) - Parts of southern Somalia are yet to recover from the battering they took in 2010-2011, when severe drought followed excessive rain, and now the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) says insufficient rain may fall in the coming months. "We are concerned - our forecast shows that there is 80 percent probability that rains could trend from normal to below normal across Somalia," said Gideon Galu, a regional FEWS NET scientist based in Africa.

The situation appears to be particularly bleak in southern Somalia, where rains during June/July are likely to be inadequate. 

Hussein Gadain, chief technical advisor at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said, "This is a seasonal climate forecast which will depend very much on the spatial and temporal distribution of the rains during the season," said . "In fact, we expect some areas might even be flooded, especially along the Shabelle River, where farmers cut the… [banks] for irrigation."

Accurately predicting the weather and its possible impact is tricky, and even more so in a year marked by the absence of strong climatic signals from the oceans. Phenomena like La Niña, when sea surface temperatures are cooler, or El Niño, when they are warmer, are part of the normal climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean and occur once every four to seven years. They can also provide clues as to how the weather may behave.

Somalia has two distinct rainy seasons. The first is 'Gu', the long rains from March to June that support the main cropping season. The second is 'Deyr', the short rains, which occur at different times across the country but usually from October to November, according to FAO.

"Normally, the climatic conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (El Nino and La Nina) tend to affect the Deyr rains more than the Gu rains, which are affected by the Somali Jet [a narrow wind-stream running north along the east African coast] and the conditions in the western Indian Ocean,” Gadain noted.

Galu said FEWS-NET uses an analogue year - when a similar forecast has been made - to build a picture of the likely impact on agriculture. "The year we used as a reference especially 2002 (the most likely scenario), indicates that rainfall distribution during the coming months is also expected to be erratic in both space and time," but he added that no two seasons/years can be exactly the same.

Some parts of southern Somalia received good Deyr rains between October and December in 2012, and farmers have managed to harvest an almost average crop of sorghum, but FAO noted that the agro-pastoral areas of Gedo, in the southwest, as well as Lower and Middle Juba, the country’s southernmost regions, received inadequate rainfall.

The severe drought in the Horn of Africa in 2010/11 displaced millions of people and left tens of thousands dead, and led the United Nations to declare a famine in parts of southern Somalia.

"We are particularly concerned, as the same communities - who have not really had sufficient time to recover - could be affected by insufficient rains," said Galu. "Crop yield prospects in southern Somalia, particularly for the rainfed cropping areas, are likely to be reduced in [the] case of below-normal rainfall amounts and erratic distribution during the season."

jk/he

]]></body><pubDate>Thu, 28 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97744/Will-Somalia-get-enough-rain-this-year</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2011/201108251054490156t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">JOHANNESBURG 28 March 2013 (IRIN) - Parts of southern Somalia are yet to recover from the battering they took in 2010-2011, when severe drought followed excessive rain, and now the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) says insufficient rain may fall in the coming months. &quot;We are concerned - our forecast shows that there is 80 percent probability that rains could trend from normal to below normal across Somalia,&quot; said Gideon Galu, a regional FEWS NET scientist based in Africa.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Gender relations are changing along with climate</title><pubDate>Mon, 25 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201301091113510766t.jpg" />]]>JOHANNESBURG 25 March 2013 (IRIN) - A changing climate will inevitably have an impact on gender relations in conservative rural communities, but not enough is being done to boost the resilience of women - already disadvantaged by traditions of inequality.</description><body><![CDATA[JOHANNESBURG 25 March 2013 (IRIN) - A changing climate will inevitably have an impact on gender relations in rural communities, but not enough is being done to boost the resilience of women - already disadvantaged by traditional inequalities. 

The UN International Strategy for International Risk reduction (UNISDR), has been arguing for  mainstreaming gender in disaster risk reduction programmes for over a decade. "Disasters don’t discriminate, but people do," the agency noted. "The potential contributions that women can offer to the disaster risk reduction [DRR] imperative around the world are often overlooked and female leadership in building community resilience to disasters is frequently disregarded." [ http://www.preventionweb.net/files/9922_MakingDisasterRiskReductionGenderSe.pdf ] 

The need for gender awareness in programming became apparent after the Asian Tsunami in 2004, in which more women than men were killed. Research by Oxfam in parts of Indonesia and India after the wave struck found that women were more vulnerable partly because they were more likely to be unable to swim, and many were in harm's way because they were standing on the shore waiting for the men to bring in the fish they would process and sell [ http://www.preventionweb.net/files/1502_bn050326tsunamiwomen.pdf ].

The development agency CARE, along with Kulima Integrated Development Solutions, a South Africa-based consultancy, is trying to develop a methodology to conduct gender-sensitive vulnerability analysis. “Most NGOs have longstanding gender commitments, and are beginning to incorporate them in their climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction,” says Kulima’s Katharine Vincent, who is working on the methodology using Mozambique as their testing ground. 

“However, what we have noticed is that despite ongoing theoretical commitment, there is a lack of support tools (handbooks, guidebooks, methodologies, etc.) which particularly address questions of how to integrate a gender-sensitive approach to CCA [climate change adaptation] and DRR projects. CARE have observed that their own Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (CVCA), whilst widely respected and used, could be stronger in advocating a gender-sensitive approach,” she added. 

So far, CARE's CVCA has been updated and now includes questions directed at women and men separately - providing women with a freer voice. 

Although NGOs and aid agencies are beginning to look at gender, Babette Resurreccion, a senior researcher at the Stockholm Environment Institute, believes a more transformative agenda is needed. While lauding efforts to consider gender-specific vulnerabilities to make men and women more resilient, she noted that “Bouncing back to normal [the conventional meaning of resilience] should not include bouncing back to a situation of gender inequality. 

"Building resilience should also transform," she noted. 

jk/he 

]]></body><pubDate>Mon, 25 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97727/Gender-relations-are-changing-along-with-climate</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201301091113510766t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">JOHANNESBURG 25 March 2013 (IRIN) - A changing climate will inevitably have an impact on gender relations in conservative rural communities, but not enough is being done to boost the resilience of women - already disadvantaged by traditions of inequality.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Disaster Risk Reduction in the Arab world</title><pubDate>Wed, 20 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2010/201002011218290693t.jpg" />]]>AQABA 20 March 2013 (IRIN) - Nearly 300 government officials, scientists, aid workers and activists from across the Arab world are working together in Jordan to draw up the first joint regional platform for disaster risk reduction (DRR).</description><body><![CDATA[AQABA 20 March 2013 (IRIN) - Nearly 300 government officials, scientists, aid workers and activists from across the Arab world are working together in Jordan to draw up the first joint regional platform for disaster risk reduction (DRR).

In the last three decades more than 164,000 people in the region have been killed by natural hazards, which caused damage estimated at US$19.2 billion, according to new figures for the region from the Belgium-based Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).

“All the people who are here now - they’ve been waiting for this for a few years. The conference has been scheduled and rescheduled, so there’s a pent up wish to discuss and tackle issues upfront,” Margareta Wahlstrom, special representative of the UN Secretary-General for DRR, told IRIN, blaming the Arab Spring for the delays.

The week of meetings is being held in Jordan’s coastal port, Aqaba, recognized as a leader in disaster preparedness in the region and one of many urban centres built on one of the four main regional fault lines - the Dead Sea Transform Fault, the Taurus-Zagros fault, the Nubia-Eurasia plate boundary in Maghreb and the NU-Aegean Sea and NU-Anatolia in Eastern Mediterranean region.

Conference speakers acknowledge that the region has been “lucky” in recent years to escape major natural hazard events, but historic records show cities like Beirut, Damascus and Alexandria have all been destroyed by earthquakes.

While the natural hazards may not be new, the risks have been aggravated in recent years by the nature of human development.

“In a relatively short period a number of crucial factors have magnified the exposure and vulnerability of cities in the Arab region to disaster and its aftermath,” said Princess Sumaya bint El Hassan, president of the Jordanian Royal Scientific Society.

“The explosive increase in urban populations in recent decades, coupled with poor planning in land use, has expanded the potential of hazard to cause havoc in our cities.”

Around 55 percent of the population in the Arab world lives in cities, a figure predicted to reach 68 percent by 2050.

Prevention not cure

Disaster experts at the conference credit the Indian Ocean Tsunami disaster of 2004 with opening eyes internationally to the importance of preparing in advance for natural hazards.

Previously, Wahlstrom told IRIN, such disasters were thought of as things over which you had little control: “you deal with the immediate consequences, you rebuild, you pay for it and you move on.”

But she says governments increasingly realize that natural disasters happen when natural hazard events meet vulnerable and unprepared populations.

“You actually have to plan for it; you can mitigate the impact, and you can mitigate the costs.”

In early 2005, countries around the world signed up to the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), which set five priorities over the 10-year period to 2015 for countries to strengthen institutional responses, set-up early warning systems, identify risks and build resilience at all levels.

It was the world’s first attempt to coordinate who should be in charge of what in a disaster.

Sometimes experience has shown itself to be the best teacher; Algeria improved building regulations for schools and hospitals after damage caused by the 2003 earthquake, while Lebanon - a regional leader on DRR - set-out to improve disaster management coordination after a recent plane crash saw four emergency operations rooms set up in the first four hours, but without any coordination between them.

Results

This is the first Arab conference on DRR, and the region is the last to meet ahead of a global DRR conference in Geneva in May, at which countries will plan the post-2015 strategies for resilience when the current Hyogo framework will need replacing.

What changes all this will have on the ground will depend on implementation, and so far Arab countries have been slow to put in place measures to improve preparedness; only nine of the region’s 22 countries have set up, or are setting up, a national loss database, while just 10 have submitted their HFA country reports to the UN Office for DRR (UNISDR).

“To be very honest with you, I share your fear that many of these things are paper products,” said Wahlstrom at the event’s press conference. “But when I look back at the conferences that we’ve had over the years, I see a very high level of coherence between the recommendations and commitments, and what people actually do.”

Funding prevention

Disaster experts at the conference stress that investing in prevention is a way to save money in the country; that a dollar spent on prevention is worth at least four after a crisis.

Natural disasters are often extraordinarily expensive - the floods that hit Saudi Arabia and Yemen in 2008 and 2009, for example, cost about $1.3 billion.

In addition, unprepared countries face far longer recovery times and affected cities and regions can be set back by years.

The Lebanese government’s decision to prioritize preparedness dates back to the destruction caused by the earthquake in Haiti, which was witnessed first-hand by officials from the prime minister’s office.

“The challenge is to convince governments to pay for what is not yet tangible, but which will become tangible in the coming years,” said Wahlstrom.

Just published figures [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97655/Tallying-natural-disaster-related-losses ] from CRED show natural hazards have cost the world more than $100 billion a year for the past three years. 

The Arab League has led the adoption of DRR in the region, and in 2012 it produced a strategy adopted by regional heads of state.

But Fatma Al-Mallah, DRR advisor and member of the Global High Level Advisory Group on HFA2, says more engagement is needed.

“This is not enough - there should be a political commitment from each government. We should have more political courage in our countries when we have problems.”

She warned governments that natural hazards such as drought were frequently an underlying cause of political unrest, citing Darfur and the Arab Spring as examples, and said that a lack of good governance on these issues risked bringing instability at the lowest levels of society.

Jordan Ryan, director of the Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery at the UN Development Programme, said natural disasters invariably affect the most vulnerable.

“Forest fires in Lebanon and earthquakes in Algeria are all reminders of how vulnerable this region is. As in other parts of the world, we know who suffers the most - the poor.”

He said 95 percent of the 1.3 million disaster fatalities around the globe in the past two decades were the poor.

“Weak systems for disaster preparedness are as much to blame as the natural disasters that cause them,” said Ryan.

jj/cb

]]></body><pubDate>Wed, 20 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97685/Disaster-Risk-Reduction-in-the-Arab-world</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2010/201002011218290693t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">AQABA 20 March 2013 (IRIN) - Nearly 300 government officials, scientists, aid workers and activists from across the Arab world are working together in Jordan to draw up the first joint regional platform for disaster risk reduction (DRR).</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Cholera outbreak in Congo</title><pubDate>Fri, 15 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2012/201209131307590968t.jpg" />]]>BRAZZAVILLE 15 March 2013 (IRIN) - An influx of migrants from the countryside into the Republic of Congo&apos;s second largest city, Pointe-Noire, is exacerbating a cholera outbreak that began in November 2012. The outbreak infected at least 389 and killed 10, according to the health ministry and local authorities.</description><body><![CDATA[BRAZZAVILLE 15 March 2013 (IRIN) - An influx of migrants from the countryside into the Republic of Congo's second largest city, Pointe-Noire, is exacerbating a cholera outbreak that began in November 2012. The outbreak infected at least 389 and killed 10, according to the health ministry and local authorities.

"Heavy rain in the port city in recent weeks and sanitation problems triggered the cholera outbreak," said Health Minister François Ibovi.

According to the mayor of Pointe-Noire, Roland Bouiti Viaudo, the booming city has seen a large influx of migrants from rural areas.

"People build and settle in prohibited areas, including [around] sewers, blocking the free flow of wastewater, which explains the repeated outbreaks of cholera,” he told IRIN. "To stop the disease… everyone - the authorities, NGOs and communities - should mobilize and become aware of this danger."

In early March, during a council of ministers' meeting, the government announced that emergency aid had been released to combat the outbreak, but it did not specify the amount.

Health authorities in Pointe-Noire, a city of more than 800,000, have set up an intensive cholera treatment centre on the grounds of the 200-bed Loandjili Hospital.

"This centre is run by six specialists in infectious diseases and the gastrointestinal tract. It also has a team of 28 nurses with disposable gowns, gloves, masks and shoes to avoid contamination," said the country’s director-general of health, Alexis Elira Dokekias.

"So far... of all cases reported by the Pointe-Noire health services, 347 have already returned home, 10 have died, and 32 are still hospitalized," he said.

lmm/cb/rz

]]></body><pubDate>Fri, 15 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97661/Cholera-outbreak-in-Congo</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2012/201209131307590968t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">BRAZZAVILLE 15 March 2013 (IRIN) - An influx of migrants from the countryside into the Republic of Congo&apos;s second largest city, Pointe-Noire, is exacerbating a cholera outbreak that began in November 2012. The outbreak infected at least 389 and killed 10, according to the health ministry and local authorities.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Tallying natural disaster-related losses</title><pubDate>Fri, 15 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2012/201212210933390563t.jpg" />]]>GENEVA 15 March 2013 (IRIN) - For three consecutive years, natural hazards have cost the world more than US$100 billion a year, according to new data from the Brussels-based Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), released in Geneva on 14 March. But even this high figure only takes into account primarily insured losses in rich countries, and does not reflect losses in the developing world, said CRED Director Debby Guha-Sapir.</description><body><![CDATA[GENEVA 15 March 2013 (IRIN) - For three consecutive years, natural hazards have cost the world more than US$100 billion a year, according to new data from the Brussels-based Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), released in Geneva on 14 March. But even this high figure only takes into account primarily insured losses in rich countries, and does not reflect losses in the developing world, said CRED Director Debby Guha-Sapir. 

In 2012, natural hazard-related losses worth $138 billion were recorded - more than half of it from disasters in the US, including the devastation caused by drought and Hurricane Sandy. “All of these were insured losses,” said Guha-Sapir [ http://www.unisdr.org/archive/31685 ].

While Typhoon Bopha killed more than 1,900 people in the Philippines in 2012, the country has an insurance penetration of only one percent, she added. 

Losses in developing world 

CRED has attempted to calculate economic losses relative to counties’ GDP to deduce the real value of losses. 

According to these values, Samoa, Haiti, Fiji, Pakistan, Madagascar and the Philippines top the list of countries with the greatest natural hazards-related losses in 2012. US losses account for only 0.57 percent of GDP, compared to Samoa, where Cyclone Evan cost the country almost 20 percent of its GDP. The Philippines’ losses accounted for 0.80 percent of its GDP. 

These figures show the impact natural disasters have on developing countries’ efforts to reduce poverty, said Elizabeth Longworth, the director of the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, which jointly released the new data. 

“A review of the economic losses caused by major disaster events since 1980 shows that since the mid-90s there has been a rise in economic losses, and this has turned into an upward trend,” she said. 

CRED has also determined the numbers of those killed or affected by natural disasters per 100,000 inhabitants. “This provides an actual sense of numbers,” said Guha-Sapir. 

She explained that in populous countries like China or India, even a small disaster can leave millions affected, overshadowing disasters in smaller countries where the lower numbers of people affected could actually comprise larger proportions of the population. 

By this new calculation, Somalia, the Gambia, Paraguay, Chad and Zimbabwe top the list of countries with the largest proportion of the population killed or affected by natural disasters in 2012. 

“This is still not perfect, but we feel mortality rates provide a better picture of losses in developing countries, where few if any, are insured,” said Guha-Sapir. 

jk/rz

]]></body><pubDate>Fri, 15 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97655/Tallying-natural-disaster-related-losses</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2012/201212210933390563t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">GENEVA 15 March 2013 (IRIN) - For three consecutive years, natural hazards have cost the world more than US$100 billion a year, according to new data from the Brussels-based Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), released in Geneva on 14 March. But even this high figure only takes into account primarily insured losses in rich countries, and does not reflect losses in the developing world, said CRED Director Debby Guha-Sapir.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Grim food security outlook for Zimbabwe*</title><pubDate>Thu, 14 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2012/201202141316350671t.jpg" />]]>HARARE 14 March 2013 (IRIN) - Laina Tavengwa, 34, from Wedza District in Zimbabwe’s Mashonaland East Province, no longer sees a point in farming her family’s four-hectare plot.</description><body><![CDATA[HARARE 14 March 2013 (IRIN) - Laina Tavengwa, 34, from Wedza District in Zimbabwe’s Mashonaland East Province, no longer sees a point in farming her family’s four-hectare plot.

When the first rains of the season fell in mid-November last year, she reluctantly heeded her husband’s advice to start planting, but she put only a hectare under maize and allocated an acre to groundnuts.

The crop suffered under a dry spell in December, and when heavy rains set in, Tavengwa was unable to tend the plot or apply fertilizer - which she did not have anyway.

“When the heavy rains stopped, my maize, just like that of my neighbours, was yellowing and looked too sick, and I vowed to my husband that I would never again think of planting maize in my lifetime.

“There is no reason to be going back to the fields every year when you know that you are never going to get anything out of them,” she told IRIN.

Most of the maize crop in Goto Village, where Tavengwa resides, is of uneven height, looks sickly and bears small cobs.

“There is no hope of a good harvest this year again. For the fourth year, we will have to beg for food from well-wishers. I have travelled across Wedza and it seems the majority of the people will not have much to put in their granaries,” Simon Maveza, a village elder, told IRIN.

Though rains have recently returned, Maveza said it was too late for their crops, mostly maize, to recover.

Critical condition

Denford Chimbwanda, former president of the Grain and Cereal Producers Association of Zimbabwe (GPCA), told IRIN that although crops were doing well in regions such as Mashonaland Central and West and parts of Mashonaland East, many areas of the country would suffer poor harvests this year.

“There are pockets of good harvests in some traditionally arid regions like Masvingo, but the crop situation is bad in Matabeleland and parts of the Midlands and Manicaland. I would say about a third of the land that was planted is going to be severely affected, meaning that there will be a cereal shortage this year again,” Chimbwanda told IRIN.

In February, the Zimbabwe Farmers’ Union (ZFU) indicated in its crop and livestock update that most crops were showing signs of stress due to erratic rains, and that maize crops in many areas were in a critical condition. 

Joseph Made, the agriculture minister, whose department is coordinating its annual crop and livestock assessment in conjunction with humanitarian agencies, revealed recently that the area planted for major food crops had declined from about 1.9 million hectares in 2012 to around 1.5 million hectares this year. 

“The area planted for major food crops, namely maize, sorghum and millet has temporarily declined… due to inadequate financial support and late rains,” he reportedly said during an address at a military training college [ http://www.herald.co.zw/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=67451:2013-crop-hectarage-down-made&catid=41:business&Itemid=133 ].

Food security poor

Looming bad harvests will add to an already poor food security situation characterized by severe shortages. 

Tavengwa said last year’s harvests were the worst she had seen in a long time. Her family managed to salvage only 10kg of maize, which lasted them less than two weeks.

“I struggle every day to feed the family.  My mind is always preoccupied with what I must do to ensure that we don’t die of hunger,” said Tavengwa, a mother of three sets of twins. Her husband has been bedridden since he had a stroke two years ago.

She frequently travels to Harare to sell dried green vegetables that she buys from vendors at the nearby Wedza business centre. The money she earns is enough to ensure that the family gets one main meal a day, but she has not paid school fees for her children since the term began in January.

According to Felix Bamezon, UN World Food Programme (WFP) country director, Zimbabwe’s current food insecurity levels are the worst in four years. “During the peak hunger period of January to March 2013, approximately 19 percent of Zimbabwe’s rural population - the equivalent of one in five people - are estimated to be in need of food assistance,” he told IRIN.

Of the country’s 13 million people, WFP and the government are providing food aid to 1.58 million in 37 districts across the country.

The Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee report of 2012 indicated that the worst-affected areas are Masvingo, Matabeleland North and South, and parts of Mashonaland, Midlands and Manicaland provinces.

Bamezon explained that WFP was mainly providing assistance to subsistence farmers and other food insecure people who were badly hit by last year’s drought. “In many parts of the country, particularly in the south, the maize they harvested barely lasted a few months, bringing an early start to the ‘hunger season’, which will end with the next harvest expected in April,” he told IRIN. 

Under the programme, in which the government for the first time provided 350,000 metric tons of maize from the strategic grain reserve, beneficiaries are receiving maize meal, cooking oil and pulses. The 250,000 people in areas that have surpluses are receiving cash to buy food.

fm/ks/rz

*This article was amended on 14/03/13. The original report erroneously described food security levels in Zimbabwe as the worst in four years and said the government provided 350,000 metric tons of maize for food assistance.

]]></body><pubDate>Thu, 14 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97645/Grim-food-security-outlook-for-Zimbabwe</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2012/201202141316350671t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">HARARE 14 March 2013 (IRIN) - Laina Tavengwa, 34, from Wedza District in Zimbabwe’s Mashonaland East Province, no longer sees a point in farming her family’s four-hectare plot.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Drought response requires getting development right</title><pubDate>Thu, 14 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2010/201008251121470984t.jpg" />]]>GENEVA 14 March 2013 (IRIN) - It takes more than weathermen and agriculture experts to design an effective drought response policy.</description><body><![CDATA[GENEVA 14 March 2013 (IRIN) - It takes more than weathermen and agriculture experts to design an effective drought response policy. Recognizing this, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) invited social scientists and economists to the 11-15 March High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy [ http://www.hmndp.org/ ], at which ministers and other officials are expected to draw up a framework that countries can adapt and mould for their individual use. 

The meeting has underscored the need for a multi-sectoral approach. Drought affects all of society, from agriculture to industry. Both villagers’ and urban residents’ electricity, water supply, income and food might depend on the amount of rainfall in their country. 

Drought kills and displaces more people than cyclones, floods and earthquakes combined, making it the world’s most destructive natural hazard, according to WMO. As the world’s climate changes, drought intensity and frequency are expected to increase, said Michel Jarraud, the WMO secretary-general. 

"Without national drought policies, countries will continue to respond to drought in a reactive way, or, in other words, they will stay in a constant crisis-management mode," said Robert Stefanski, chief of WMO's agrometeorology division. "The goal is for countries to be resilient and not be totally dependent on relief to deal with droughts. Of course, relief will be a factor, but it should not be the only way countries to deal the droughts or other disasters." 

The economic, social and environmental consequences of droughts have increased significantly worldwide. The World Bank predicts that in Malawi, for instance, severe droughts expected to occur once in 25 years could increase poverty by 17 percent, hitting rural poor communities especially hard. And in India, losses from droughts recorded between 1970 and 2002 have reduced the affected households’ yearly incomes by 60 to 80 percent [ http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2012/08/30/severe-droughts-drive-food-prices-higher-threatening-poor ].

Getting development right 

A good national drought policy is a good national development policy, says Anantha Kumar Duraiappah, who heads the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change [ http://www.ihdp.unu.edu/article/read/about-us ]. The objectives of both drought policy and development policy are the same: to make populations and systems resilient enough to withstand drought - or other shocks - and continue to grow. 

It is about getting sustainable development right, said Bai-Mass Taal, the executive secretary of the African Ministers’ Council on Water, who led Africa’s discussions on the elements of a good drought policy framework. 

“A drought policy is about integrated land and water management, which in turn is about sustainable use of water and land. And it is also about all other sectors - such as health and the economy - working together,” said Taal, who served as Gambia’s minister of fisheries and natural resources until a few years ago. “It is not just an environmental or agricultural issue anymore.” 

A drought in a major food-producing region can have wider global ramifications, as the 2012 drought in the US demonstrated, pushing prices of major staple grains to record levels, affecting not only people’s access to food in many countries but also their economies. 

Donald Wilhite, who teaches applied climate science at the University of Nebraska and gave the keynote talk on the first day of the meeting, said the development of a national drought policy “should be linked to national development and national water policies, if they exist. This process is about building institutional capacity in many areas.” 

Many countries have early warning systems in place to predict droughts. But an early warning system “is worthless without a mechanism to engage decision-makers at all levels and the institutional capacity to deliver messages in a timely manner." 

And the engagement should move beyond sectors. 

Siddharth Chatterjee, of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), pointed out that “as droughts affect all of the three pillars of sustainable development - economic, social and the environment”, governments will require a framework “to craft a country-specific national drought policy”. They must also balance “between a top-down and bottom-up approach, keeping vulnerable populations at the centre of their focus” by, for example, consulting with civil society. 

Bottom-up 

But climate is growing increasingly variable, making it difficult to plan a response, said Gideon Galu, a scientist with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET, which provides early warning data for most countries in Africa, has started offering possible scenarios to governments and aid agencies to help them plan. 

Rainfall can vary from village to village, says Hilary Motsiri, IFRC’s senior officer on food security. “We need to bring the communities to the table in the consultations on a drought policy to identify their needs.” 

Communities also have indigenous knowledge and coping mechanisms that need to be strengthened and built upon. “You just cannot hand rain gauges to them to monitor rainfall - many of them have their own ways to measure rainfall and have even maintained communal grain reserves in the past.” 

Faced with increasing climate variability, Australia - one of the few countries to have had a drought policy in place since the 1990s - has engaged in major reforms, conference participants heard. The country now intends to offer a constant package of safety-net measures to farmers and rural communities that are vulnerable to drought [ http://www.daff.gov.au/agriculture-food/drought/drought-pilot ]. Previously, the measures only kicked after a drought was declared. 

The package, which provides technical support to farmers and their families and an exit plan should they wish to leave farming, aims to make them resilient and not dependent on government support. 

Ultimately, countries have to decide what will work best for them, said Taal. “But it is going to be a tough challenge to make people think beyond their sectors and drive an effective drought policy. It needs tremendous political will at the very top to make this possible.” 

jk/rz 

]]></body><pubDate>Thu, 14 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97647/Drought-response-requires-getting-development-right</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2010/201008251121470984t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">GENEVA 14 March 2013 (IRIN) - It takes more than weathermen and agriculture experts to design an effective drought response policy.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Building resilience</title><pubDate>Fri, 08 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201303041527250868t.jpg" />]]>JOHANNESBURG 08 March 2013 (IRIN) - A series of articles exploring what resilience means for vulnerable communities, and its impact on the architecture of aid.</description><body><![CDATA[JOHANNESBURG 08 March 2013 (IRIN) - OVERVIEW

Understanding resilience
[ http://www.irinnews.org/In-Depth/97584/105/ ]

REPORTS

The R-word - Rhetoric versus reality in the Sahel [ http://www.irinnews.org/In-Depth/97590/105/ ]
Has HIV funding revived lagging health systems? [ http://www.irinnews.org/In-Depth/97601/105/ ]
Giving communities a voice in resilience [ http://www.irinnews.org/In-Depth/97595/105/ ]
Export oil, import water – the Middle East’s risky economics [ http://www.irinnews.org/In-Depth/97596/105/ ]
Filipino cities tackle climate change [ http://www.irinnews.org/In-Depth/97600/105/ ]
Building flash flood resilience in Pakistan’s mountainous regions [ http://www.irinnews.org/In-Depth/97606/105/ ]
Despite hype, insurance not key to resilience for farmers [ http://www.irinnews.org/In-Depth/97592/105/ ]

Soundslide: From refugee to entrepreneur [ http://www.irinnews.org/film/4933/From-refugee-to-entrepreneur ]]]></body><pubDate>Fri, 08 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97594/Building-resilience</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201303041527250868t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">JOHANNESBURG 08 March 2013 (IRIN) - A series of articles exploring what resilience means for vulnerable communities, and its impact on the architecture of aid.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Building flash flood resilience in Pakistan’s mountainous regions</title><pubDate>Thu, 07 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/211252t.jpg" />]]>PESHAWAR 07 March 2013 (IRIN) - In his village near Muzaffarabad, capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Nazeer Butt, 40, points to his ruined house on a steep mountainside.</description><body><![CDATA[PESHAWAR 07 March 2013 (IRIN) - In his village near Muzaffarabad, capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Nazeer Butt, 40, points to his ruined house on a steep mountainside.

“Three outer walls caved in and the roof was damaged when a torrent raced down the hill and hit it last month,” Butt told IRIN.

He is currently living with a neighbour, while he attempts to rebuild the house. He has sent his family of five to live with relatives.

Flash floods in February caused damage over a wide area, killing “29 people in various areas”, according to Adnan Khan, spokesman for the Provincial Disaster Management Authority in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province (KP).

They tend to be much more destructive than regular flooding because of the element of surprise, and the force of the water, which carries far more boulders and other debris, destroying infrastructure like roads, dams and irrigation systems.

A new report [ http://lib.icimod.org/record/27767/files/Case-study-on%20%20FFRM.pdf ] by the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) [ http://www.icimod.org/ ] says a “growing body of evidence indicates that the frequency and intensity of flash floods are increasing in the countries of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region.”

The cause

ICIMOD works in eight countries in this region, to help communities understand and adapt to the impact of human development and climate change.

Flash floods can be created when glacial lakes, bodies of water created by retreated glaciers, burst their banks. 

An ICIMOD survey identified 5,000 glaciers in Pakistan, of which 52 look to pose a risk of triggering flash floods.

Sudden heavy rainfall during the monsoon can also trigger flash flooding: In September 2012 the hilly Jaffarabad and Naseerabad districts of Balochistan were badly hit [ http://forpakistan.org/fpdata/army-and-fc-carry-rescue-operations-in-flood-affected-areas-of-baluchistan/ ]. Over 7,000 people were affected, according to the Balochistan government focal person on floods, Akbar Hussain Durrani, and he says some are still struggling to rebuild their lives. 

Rainfall in the region is frequently heavy and localized, a phenomenon sometimes called a cloudburst, which can cause a sudden flood of water that surprises downstream villages which may not have had any rain at all.

“My home was washed away, so were my lands. I have no money to rebuild them,” said Afzal Baloch, currently living with his family in a makeshift shack along a road leading out of the town of Dera Murad Jamali in Balochistan’s Naseerabad District.

“The sight of entire rivers of water sweeping down the hillside and washing away homes and everything else was just horrific. I will never forget it.”

Preparing for the unexpected

These are some of the poorest parts of Pakistan and hill villagers feel they have little choice but to accept the risks.

But although flash floods are classed as unexpected extreme weather events, communities are by no means powerless and several measures can be taken to build resilience.

“Flash floods are fairly common. We try to raise awareness within communities about minimizing damage,” said Khan of the KP Disaster Management Authority.

In KP’s Chitral District a project was started in 2008 to set up an Early Warning System to provide people with a few minutes of warning in advance of the flooding, by using mosque loudspeakers and text messaging.

Around 90 percent of the district is at risk of flash flooding, according to ICIMOD.

Community leaders have taken part in workshops on how to help them reduce the damage floods cause, and manage such disasters when they happen.

Villages also carried out “dry runs” of disaster management strategies, and established evacuation routes and safe areas of ground that residents can escape to.

Volunteers from mountain villagers are now organized in Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) by NGO FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance [ http://www.akdn.org/FOCUS ], the implementing partner used by ICIMOD. These volunteers are the first responders in the event of a flash flood. 

“Some basic response equipment [is] provided to them in order to prepare them locally,” said Salmanuddin Shah, programme manager of FOCUS.

“So far there are around 120 CERTs across Pakistan and they have been able to respond to many local disasters, saving many lives and properties.”

Using satellite imagery to identify the areas most at risk of flash floods, community leaders can work out how to reduce risks and prepare for such emergencies.

“The emphasis was on making us aware about how to lessen the damage caused by floods by, for example, preserving pastures so that the plantations growing on them could help stop flash floods pouring down hillsides,” said Hammed Uddin, a participant from the village of Zaith in Chitral, one of four selected for the ICIMOD/FOCUS flash flood programme in the area to the west of the Yarkhun river.

The centre of Zaith village is at the point where two streams coming from different directions meet, and so is particularly vulnerable to flash floods.

CERT training workshops give information on reducing damage when flash floods come, basic rescue techniques and practical things villages can do to reduce the likelihood of flash floods in the future.

Tree planting and gabion boxes

Tree-planting is encouraged as a way to stop erosion, slow down water run-off, and also slow down the decline of glaciers.

“Human activity and interference with the natural environment, such as overgrazing in the upper catchment and deforestation, compound the problem, as lack of vegetation causes direct runoff which can trigger a flash flood. This, together with climate change, is contributing to increases in the frequency and magnitude of flash floods in the study area,” says the ICIMOD report on resilience programmes. 

Water channels, check dams and gabion retaining walls made from packing stones in a wire frame have also been built in some of the villages as part of the structural mitigation programmes implemented in collaboration with the government.

Potentially life-saving equipment and supplies are also stockpiled in case of emergency.

Scaling up

There is no definitive data so far on how many lives such initiatives have saved, though volunteers have put their skills into action on several occasions since 2010 to help families affected by flash floods.

Hundreds have died in the past 50 years in these villages, and “flash floods and debris flow are the dominant hazards in Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral,” said Shah from FOCUS.

But a wider question is how successfully such initiatives can be scaled-up from providing training and equipment to a handful of villages, to building region-wide resilience. 

Pakistan does not yet have a national strategy that specifically plans for dealing with flash flooding, but in late February the country’s National Disaster Management Committee approved a new Disaster Risk Reduction policy [ http://www.ndma.gov.pk/news_room.php#drrpolicy_21_02_2013 ] to help the country build resilience to extreme climate events like floods, avalanches and landslides.

It recommends the wide application of solutions similar to those seen in the flash flood-prone valleys of KP.

"The fact that Pakistan experiences a range of regularly occurring hazards provides a strong rationale for investing in multi-hazard Early Warning Systems that provide advance warnings to both decision-makers and communities,” says the policy.

kh/jj/cb

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Building resilience

A series of articles exploring what resilience means for vulnerable communities, and its impact on the architecture of aid
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]]></body><pubDate>Thu, 07 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97606/Building-flash-flood-resilience-in-Pakistan-s-mountainous-regions</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/211252t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">PESHAWAR 07 March 2013 (IRIN) - In his village near Muzaffarabad, capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Nazeer Butt, 40, points to his ruined house on a steep mountainside.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>In Kenya, information strengthens pastoralists&apos; resilience</title><pubDate>Wed, 06 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2011/201110241301570923t.jpg" />]]>ISIOLO 06 March 2013 (IRIN) - Inadequate access to information, such as weather forecasts, has hampered Kenyan pastoralists&apos; ability to respond and adapt to climate change, experts say.</description><body><![CDATA[ISIOLO 06 March 2013 (IRIN) - Inadequate access to information, such as weather forecasts, has hampered Kenyan pastoralists' ability to respond and adapt to climate change, experts say.

"Lack of adequate information and focus on emergency responses has left communities exposed to the effects of climate change. More focus must now go towards ensuring that the communities have the ability to withstand the effects of climate change. Building resilience is the way to go," Victor Orindi, climate change advisor in the Ministry of State for the Development of Northern Kenya and Other Arid Lands, told IRIN.

Kenya’s pastoralists face recurrent devastation from droughts, livestock deaths, loss of livelihood and conflict over resources.

Weather forecasts

A climate change adaptation project has been launched in Garbatulla, in the eastern county of Isiolo, which is inhabited mainly by pastoralist communities. 

The project, funded through the Climate Adaptation Fund and developed by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) and the Kenya Meteorological Department, will establish a radio station to broadcast weather forecasts in local languages.

"Pastoralists are the most disadvantaged group in Kenya. A majority are illiterate, can't read newspapers and don't understand languages used by all the radio and TV stations… [which] are the same facilities that are used to inform Kenyans about climate change," Mumina Bonaya, community mobilization manager for the NGO Resource Advocacy Programme, told IRIN.

The radio station, known as Badada FM, is expected to reach almost a million people from the Borana, Gabra, Samburu, Somali, Turkana and Rendile communities in northern Kenya. The radio station will focus on giving updates on looming droughts and floods, as well as information on climate change.

The project will additionally build links between pastoralists and researchers, weather experts, policymakers, government officials and aid agencies. It will also map grazing fields and community watering points, and will empower pastoralist communities to better manage and utilize these resources. 

"Our county’s climate change resilience project, the first of its kind in Kenya, will mobilize resources, researchers and modern technology. We have changed the approach, and linked the herder down at the wards [villages] with key institutions at national and international level s," Bonaya said.

Through what are known as ward committees, communities can identify initiatives they find promising and request that they be funded. Similar projects are being piloted in five wards in eastern and northern Kenya.

Empowering communities

Jo Abbot, the deputy head of the UK's Department for International Development (DFID) in Kenya, said climate change-related challenges can be managed through the adoption of technology and by keeping communities abreast of weather patterns. But relaying weather forecasts through print and electronic media and television has meant that this information does not reach people like pastoralists. And the information available is often imprecise.

"Our delivery system makes it difficult to reach the end-users. Those who get it demand details such as exact amount of rainfall, onset and cessation, and this cannot be achieved in the predictions," Ayub Shaka, head of the Kenya Meteorological Department, said.

But empowering communities through resilience and early warning programmes improves pastoralists' coping mechanisms, and could work better than funding emergency programmes, experts say.

"It's cheap to prevent [disasters] and empower communities with information... Researchers and donors will both benefit [since] famine, diseases, loss of livestock or source of income, and conflicts are very costly. They affect education, the health sector and development plans," Daoud Tari, head of the Resource Advocacy Programme project, told IRIN.

na/ko/rz

]]></body><pubDate>Wed, 06 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97603/In-Kenya-information-strengthens-pastoralists-apos-resilience</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2011/201110241301570923t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">ISIOLO 06 March 2013 (IRIN) - Inadequate access to information, such as weather forecasts, has hampered Kenyan pastoralists&apos; ability to respond and adapt to climate change, experts say.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Giving communities a voice in resilience</title><pubDate>Tue, 05 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2007/200709123t.jpg" />]]>JOHANNESBURG 05 March 2013 (IRIN) - Contrary to popular belief, most rural communities facing recurrent climate shocks learn to adapt, using their own resources and knowledge. Yet many international aid programmes have outside “experts” craft interventions without the involvement of those they seek to help.</description><body><![CDATA[JOHANNESBURG 05 March 2013 (IRIN) - Contrary to popular belief, most rural communities facing recurrent climate shocks learn to adapt, using their own resources and knowledge. Yet many international aid programmes have outside “experts” craft interventions without the involvement of those they seek to help. 

And many development projects do not actually promote adaptability, said Simon Levine of the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), in a 2012 Oxfam blog post [ http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/blog/2012/05/its-time-we-started-talking-about-a-revolution ]. “The vast majority of these interventions, and the people designing and running them, never talked about 'change' or 'the future' at all… If you want to help people be able to deal with change, then you have to start by thinking about them as people who have their own minds and preferences and plans, and the right to choose, and the right to be able to make an informed choice. They don't need skills that are right for today half as much as they need to know where they can find the skills they may need tomorrow.” 

But a handful of NGOs is asking communities what they need to better adapt to changing environmental and climatic conditions. Such initiatives seek practical ways to implement resilience while taking into account the strengths, coping mechanisms and ideas of the people they intend to assist. 

Minimum standards 

One such initiative is Partners for Resilience (PfR), a collaboration of CARE Netherlands, Cordaid, the Netherlands Red Cross, the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, Wetlands International and 30 civil society partners in the global South. Established in 2011, PfR works in nine countries in Africa, Asia and Central America. 

Based on its interactions with local communities, local and national government representatives, and other partners, the initiative has drawn up a list of minimum standards [ http://www.climatecentre.org/minimumstandards ] to help local actors reduce climate-related disaster risks. 

The list “does not aim for impossibly idealized solutions but for practical approaches that are achievable by communities with relatively limited support”, explained Maarten van Aalst, head of the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre. 

At the very least, the minimum standards say, a community must: be aware that future climate risks will be different from today’s; be able to interpret early warnings about possible climatic shocks and use them in local adaptation; be able to conduct and update risk assessments; and identify ways to adapt or change existing livelihoods. The community should also have relationships with meteorological agencies, and be able communicate their needs to government and climate change-related officials. 

Boosting adaptability 

In 2009, another group of NGOs - including Oxfam, Care International, Save the Children, World Vision International and ODI - formed the Africa Climate Change Resilience Alliance (ACCRA) to explore how development interventions could improve people’s adaptive capacity. 

ACCRA works to understand communities’ mindsets before determining interventions. It studies how they cope with shocks, their local institutional arrangements and their power relations, and it explores the social networks they rely on for support. 

ACCRA also tries to engage communities on issues beyond just climate change-related shocks and disasters, considering long-term trends like rising food prices, increasing temperatures and population growth - issues that require flexible and forward-looking decision-making. 

For example, ACCRA has partnered with the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, the firm Abaci and Antidote Games to develop a game to encourage locals to make flexible and forward-looking decisions in response to real-world climate-change scenarios. The game is being used in research workshops in Ethiopia, Mozambique and Uganda [ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rAPz73-MTk ]. 

“Ours is more [a method] of empowering existing institutions with evidence and knowledge to create a demand-driven approach,” said Saskia Daggett, a coordinator at ACCRA. 

Since its inception, ACCRA has gathered evidence [ http://community.eldis.org/.59d669a8/publications.html ] from its experiences in three countries - Ethiopia, Mozambique and Uganda - which it hopes will inform the work of other aid actors. 

Decision-making at community level 

ACCRA’s strategy seems to be working. Based on feedback from the populations of two districts in Uganda, ACCRA has managed to foster constructive relationships with communities and various tiers of government. 

Responding to the districts’ requests for climate information, ACCRA brought in meteorologists to explain forecasts and climate data. By creating connections between several government structures, ACCRA helped the officials communicate this information to the public. This included translating early warnings about possible poor rains into several local languages, then disseminating the warnings through radio, television and pamphlets. 

As a result, the communities were better able to prepare for the poor rains. Since they had already developed a positive relationship with their local governments, they were able to effectively communicate their needs, which included water points, planting trees and improved seeds. With the useful and timely feedback of the community, the district officials, in turn, were able to produce response plans and to source funds for government action, says Daggett. 

Now, other districts want to emulate these efforts. “There is much better interplay and understanding between the communities and all the government actors and NGOs,” Daggett said. 

Still, governments and NGOs continue to rely on short-term, reactive planning, she added. 

And some communities’ traditions can inhibit disaster prevention and climate-change adaptation. 
ACCRA discovered that, in some villages in Ethiopia, innovation "was clearly constrained by a dominant culture that frowned on doing things differently… There was strong opposition to individuals changing sowing dates", for example, as the rainfall patterns changed. 

This is where development actors can step in and support those who dare to innovate. 

The message of these new initiatives is, as one ACCRA paper put it [ http://www.odi.org.uk/publications/6213-accra-adaptive-capacity-development-interventions ], "All development interventions need an agency lens, ie, they need to be thought of not simply as delivering a given infrastructure or technology, but as vehicles for expanding people’s range of choices." 

jk/rz 

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Building resilience

A series of articles exploring what resilience means for vulnerable communities, and its impact on the architecture of aid
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]]></body><pubDate>Tue, 05 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97595/Giving-communities-a-voice-in-resilience</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2007/200709123t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">JOHANNESBURG 05 March 2013 (IRIN) - Contrary to popular belief, most rural communities facing recurrent climate shocks learn to adapt, using their own resources and knowledge. Yet many international aid programmes have outside “experts” craft interventions without the involvement of those they seek to help.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Export oil, import water – the Middle East’s risky economics</title><pubDate>Tue, 05 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2011/201110181249250031t.jpg" />]]>DUBAI 05 March 2013 (IRIN) - The world’s driest region, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), is getting drier at an alarming rate.</description><body><![CDATA[DUBAI 05 March 2013 (IRIN) - The world’s driest region, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), is getting drier at an alarming rate.

And yet, despite massive population growth (the Middle East’s population grew 61 percent from 1990 to 2010 to 205 million people)* [ http://iea.org/co2highlights/co2highlights.pdf ] predictions of so-called “water wars” have failed to materialize.

So how has a region that water experts say ceased to have enough water for its strategic needs in1970 proved so resilient to water scarcity?

“Trade is the first means of being resilient; it’s the process that enables an economy to be resilient. The ability to trade effectively depends on the strength and diversity of the economy,” Anthony Allan from King’s College London and the School of Oriental and African Studies told IRIN.

That does not literally mean that countries import water directly; it is rather that because so much water is used, not for drinking, but for agriculture (around 90 percent), by importing food staples like wheat you are in effect importing water, something Allan calls “virtual water”.

As a result, the region’s growing population imports around a third of its food - a figure that shoots up in the Gulf states where arable land is negligible.

But while such resilience may “miraculously” solve extreme water scarcity and make life that exists today possible in the Middle East, it can create its own vulnerabilities; countries need economies that can generate enough foreign currency to pay for imports.

That may be easy in oil-rich countries with small populations like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, but it is far more difficult in places like Egypt, which struggles to find the reserves to pay for wheat imports for its 84 million citizens in a context of declining crude oil exports and a slump in tourism.

Such trade “resilience” is also largely unaffordable in a place like Yemen - the region’s poorest country, which has 25 million people in an extremely water scarce (and hence food scarce) environment.

Each Yemeni only has access to about 140 cubic metres of water annually and the capital, Sana’a, is on track to be the first in the world without a viable water supply.

An uncertain future

While trade, an abundance of historically cheap food on international markets, and for some oil - sold at high prices - have combined to create an unexpected resilience in the face of water scarcity, such lessons may not travel well in the developing world.

Trade may have reduced dependency on local water supplies, but it has shifted dependency to international markets and exposed people to fluctuating world prices.

It has also hidden the gravity of the water scarcity situation in the Middle East and made it easier to neglect the development of other solutions to a problem that shows no sign of going away.

A recent study [ http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/Grace/news/grace20130212.html ] of NASA satellite data published last month found that parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran along the Tigris and Euphrates river basins had lost 144 cubic kilometres of water from 2003 to 2009 - roughly equivalent to the volume of the Dead Sea.

An analysis of the data published in the Water Resources Research journal [ http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1944-7973 ] attributes about 60 percent of the loss to the pumping of groundwater from underground reservoirs - reserves people fall back on when rivers dry up.

Underground reserves can only last so long, and importing ever increasing amounts of food to feed a growing population is not an option for poorer countries.

Resilience and efficiency

Nevertheless, there are other lessons in water scarcity resilience from the Middle East - either measures that have been shown to build resilience, or that water experts have come to understand would improve the strength of the system to further shocks if they were broadly implemented.

Some of these solutions are not new.

For a start, though the region may be drying, it has been dry for a long time.

“Water scarcity is not new to the region,” Hamed Assaf, a water resource management specialist at the American University of Sharjah in the UAE, told IRIN. “It has been the norm for thousands of years and people have adapted their survival strategies to changes in rainfall and temperature,” he told IRIN.

With scientist predicting an increase in extreme weather events, adaptability has become increasingly important. It is also true that there remains a degree of unpredictability in the system, particularly in Egypt where it is not clear if future rainfall will increase or decrease.

Resilience is about being strong in the face of whatever happens. And in any situation, strong water systems make the most of what they have - including through treating and reusing waste water like at the Al Gabal Asfar water treatment plant in Egypt.

Rainwater harvesting

One old technique is rainwater harvesting. “In Jordan there are indications of early water harvesting structures believed to have been constructed over 9,000 years ago,” Rida Al-Adamat, director of the Water, Environment and Arid Regions Research Centre at Jordan’s al-Bayt University, told IRIN.

Jordan harvests 400-420 million cubic metres of water annually, according to Ministry of Water and Irrigation spokesperson Omar Salameh.

“We have 10 major dams with a total capacity of 325 million cubic metres, in addition to hundreds of sand dams in different locations to develop local communities and recharge groundwater.”

Water harvesting can be done at the household level especially in areas that get enough rainfall during the rainy season. “If your area gets 500mm of rain per year, you can collect enough water for household use,” said Assaf.

“In Lebanon, people used to build ponds to collect water during winter and use it later on for irrigation and breeding animals,” said Assaf.

“The main idea of water harvesting is to increase green water or soil moisture… Farmers in the region used to build small sand barriers on slopes to prevent the water from going down and thus recharge the area. Then they used to plant in the areas behind the barriers,” he added.

Data collection

A key aspect of efficient water use is data collection - important for sound water management at the country level.

“As the saying goes: what you cannot measure you cannot manage,” Heba Yaken, water and sanitation operation analyst at the World Bank office in Cairo, told IRIN. “It is important to know how much you are consuming in order to manage it in a good way.”

Jordan, which some say has one of the most monitored water scarcity situations in the world, has gained widespread recognition for its data collection.

“Jordan’s data is relatively well organized, especially when it comes to agriculture. The volume of water consumption is precisely known in every area. They have installed measuring tools in every area so they know what kinds of crops are being cultivated and the amount of water they consume,” Hiba Hariri from the Arab Water Council told IRIN.

Data-sharing in the region is limited, according to Yaken. “Countries are not as transparent as they should be,” she said.

Other solutions

A whole range of solutions are being piloted and recommended in the Middle East.

In Egypt, the Arab Spring has encouraged farmers to become more outspoken in demanding their water rights, says Yaken from the World Bank.

Farmers have come together in “water users’ associations” to help manage supplies and become more aware of water scarcity issues.

“Farmers are now responsible for the `mesqas’ [canals]”, Yaken told IRIN.

“People at the tail of the `mesqa’ don’t get as much water as the people upstream. People are receiving much more training so that they can manage those disputes between the different farmers, and different demands,” she said.

Elsewhere, capacity building is being carried out by the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ), which is running a climate change adaptation scheme designed to help Arab states climate-proof water systems [ http://www.water-energy-food.org/en/practice/view__1108/adaptation-to-climate-change-in-the-water-sector-in-the-mena-region-accwam.html ].

While trade provides substitutes for much agricultural water use, the remaining 10 percent of water needs are increasingly being met by desalination, half of which globally is carried out in the Middle East.

Recent years have seen a large increase in desalination, clearly useful in a region without any landlocked countries, but it is an energy-intensive phenomenon almost entirely powered by fossil fuel power, which raises other environmental concerns.

Saudi Arabia uses 1.5 million barrels of oil a day to power its desalination plants [ http://hir.harvard.edu/pressing-change/saudi-arabia-and-desalination-0 ], although it is looking to develop solar-powered plants.

Solar is a largely unexplored option for desalination, but also for increasing the efficiency of water systems, through technologies like solar-powered water pumps.

Consumption

But although desalination may become an increasingly affordable, and renewable, solution, water experts say it can only be used as part of wider reforms [ http://water.worldbank.org/publications/seawater-and-brackish-water-desalination-middle-east-north-africa-and-central-asia-rev-1 ].

A more resilient water system will also need adaptions on the demand side, including more efficient consumption of water, as well as cooperation between countries on the sustainable use of current resources.

“The problem is that we have short-term plans that change with the change of personnel or ministers,” said Hariri from the Arab Water Council.

As climate change and population growth increase pressure on water systems, the MENA region will need to be increasingly efficient in its use of water - and may have lessons for other parts of the world.

*The definition of Middle East used in the OECD/World Bank figures is Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, UAE, Yemen, but not Israel or OPT.

dvh/jj/cb

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Building resilience

A series of articles exploring what resilience means for vulnerable communities, and its impact on the architecture of aid
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]]></body><pubDate>Tue, 05 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97596/Export-oil-import-water-the-Middle-East-s-risky-economics</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2011/201110181249250031t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">DUBAI 05 March 2013 (IRIN) - The world’s driest region, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), is getting drier at an alarming rate.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Understanding resilience</title><pubDate>Mon, 04 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2011/201109190842460718t.jpg" />]]>JOHANNESBURG 04 March 2013 (IRIN) - No one working in the aid community in recent years could have avoided the buzzword “resilience” - but what does the term mean practically, and how has it helped shape action on the ground?</description><body><![CDATA[JOHANNESBURG 04 March 2013 (IRIN) - No one working in the aid community in recent years could have avoided the buzzword “resilience” - but what does the term mean practically, and how has it helped shape action on the ground?

In fact, there is no standard definition of the term, points out a draft paper by the UN Development Programme (UNDP). The UN’s lead development agency, along with the Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), has been tasked with finding ways to consider how development and humanitarian actors can work better together on resilience.

The UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction defines the term as “the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner.” The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, meanwhile, describes resilience as “the amount of change a system can undergo without changing state”. The UK Department for International Development defines it as “the ability of countries, communities and households to manage change, by maintaining or transforming living standards in the face of shocks or stresses… without compromising their long-term prospects.”

But according to UNDP, these and other definitions focus too narrowly on responding to shocks rather than preventing or preparing for them, and their stated goal is only to return beleaguered communities to their original state. UNDP therefore proposes to define resilience as a “transformative process of strengthening the capacity of people, communities and countries to anticipate, manage, recover and transform from shocks” - otherwise known as build back better.

Resilience “is more of a process than an outcome,” said Samuel Doe, UNDP’s focal point on resilience, adding that he is bewildered when he hears about organizations planning to “roll out resilience.”

Any community targeted by a programme with a resilience component is meant to end up with improved self-esteem, gender sensitivity, the ability to organize themselves, an effective early warning system, and other forms of self-sufficiency, he says.

In the field, activities that improve the “resilience” of vulnerable households and communities - such as disaster risk reduction, livelihood support, social protection and basic services - are not new, explained Sarah Muscroft of OCHA.

“What is new is the way in which needs are assessed and programmes are planned and delivered. Bringing together humanitarian and development actors and aligning assessment and planning tools will be central to this approach,” she added.

Development or humanitarian?

Resilience can potentially act as a bridge between emergency response and long-term development aid [ http://www.irinnews.org/report/94714/Analysis-Coping-with-climate-change ], tackling the vulnerabilities that make people susceptible to shocks. But there remains confusion over who should be more responsible - humanitarian workers providing immediate relief in a crisis or longer-term development actors.

Simon Levine, a researcher with the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), said, “From what I see in discussions and workshops, there is more interest in ‘resilience’ from among the humanitarians, and there is a tendency to see resilience as something that humanitarian aid should be building in its response - ‘building back better’ - to prevent crises recurring.”

He added, “I strongly believe that this puts the accent in the wrong place… the real driver behind the resilience agenda ought to be the realization that the job of ‘development aid’ is to prevent people falling into crisis.”

But humanitarians argue they are already working beyond their mandate of providing relief. Recurrent crises - such as cyclones in the Indian Ocean, droughts in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, and floods in Southern Africa - have already led to much introspection about whether humanitarian aid provides only a band-aid for systemic problems.

Inspired by vulnerability studies in the mid-1970s, humanitarian officials have increasingly turned their attention to longer-term solutions. This led to the creation of the disaster risk reduction (DRR) approach. The Hyogo Framework for Action - the first internationally accepted framework on DRR, adopted in 2005, was “a first comprehensive attempt to detail what are the ingredients of resilience,” said Margareta Wahlström, UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction.

Today, humanitarian aid is more than just drilling a borehole to provide water in a drought, explains Dorothée Klaus, the UN Children Fund’s (UNICEF) Horn of Africa chief of programme and planning. While doing that, an aid agency considers the needs of livestock and environmental erosion, and it tries to ensure households understand the reason for the intervention and take ownership of the project - factors that a development project would take into account.

Jakob Wernerman, UNICEF’s disaster risk reduction specialist in the Sahel, says development and humanitarian aid aim to reduce different types of vulnerability. Development aid has tended to focus on reducing broad vulnerabilities, particularly with the objective of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), he said. Humanitarian aid, on the other hand, has focused on reducing the vulnerability of a community or an individual to crises on the ground.

Blurring the lines

OCHA’s Muscroft says humanitarians’ embrace of resilience “will necessitate a shift from the traditional relief-to-development paradigm to embrace a much more integrated approach that is able to simultaneously address short-, medium- and long-term needs”.

That is precisely what Luca Alinovi, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) representative for Somalia has been calling for. He says classifying aid as “relief”, “early recovery” or “development” does little to help countries like Somalia that are facing what is known in aid jargon as a “protracted crisis” [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/92928/AID-POLICY-Classifications-questioned-in-protracted-crises ].

But how aid is classified affects how it is funded; money may be made available for only an immediate intervention, or it may be supplied on an annual basis.

“If we want to help the country emerge from the crisis, we have to make a long-term commitment,” Alinovi told IRIN in 2011, ahead of the famine in Somalia, which many experts blamed on inadequate funding for long-term projects that would have boosted Somalis’ resilience to climatic shocks [ http://www.oxfam.org/en/emergencies/east-africa-food-crisis/famine-somalia-what-needs-be-done ].

Both humanitarian and development “streams have to converge around resilience outcomes,” he said in an email.

Lynn Brown, the World Food Programme's chief economist, says the problem is “trying to do emergency work in a way that seamlessly transitions to development as the immediate emergency dissipates.”

Humanitarians can help build resilience by providing useful analysis to development actors, says Jackob Rhyner, director of the Institute for Environment and Human Security at the UN University in Bonn. 
But do development actors listen to humanitarian workers? This would involve a considerable shift in thinking, particularly for big donors involved in development work like the World Bank, which use different standards for evidence, says ODI’s Levine.

Even so, donors such as the EU have called for a common planning process for both development and humanitarian aid, he points out.

As each agency, organization and donor tries to draw up frameworks around resilience, it will help them arrive at a common understanding, says UNDP's Doe.

Remember early recovery?

There have been previous attempts to build bridges between humanitarian and development aid, including the “early recovery” approach, which was meant to help humanitarian programmes “catalyse sustainable development opportunities.” [ http://www.gsdrc.org/index.cfm?objectid=49CC9A0E-14C2-620A-274690F3287921B4 ]

But “despite efforts, early recovery typically has been seen as separate rather than integral to humanitarian action,” said Muscroft.

Doe hopes the resilience agenda will prompt greater emphasis on early recovery. Asked whether the resilience approach is meant to avoid the linear relief-recovery-development route, he responded that as discussions continue on the issue, the way forward will emerge.

Muscroft says the “biggest challenges” to implementing a resilience approach will be “overcoming entrenched institutional sovereignty” and getting agencies to become more flexible and to adapt, think and act differently.

Measuring an intangible

Most donors, meanwhile, would like to know if their money is actually making people more resilient.

UNICEF's Eugenie Reidy, who works in Somalia, says statistical measures such as immunization coverage, nutrition indicators and access to water could help build a picture of resilience. But there are indicators of resilience that are impossible to quantify, like confidence, capacity to adapt and empowerment.

UNICEF has been consulting with a community in south central Somalia that had been affected by the 2011 famine to better understand what resilience means from the community’s perspective. They want to see if a mix of quantitative and qualitative data will help them assess the effectiveness of their resilience programming.

Levine says “mixed method approaches are the way to go... My only disagreement here … is having a composite measurement of this ethereal essence.

“You can’t add up a score which says how resilient a child is to an endemic disease (for which immunization helps, but only depending on where they live, what other health threats they face, etc.)… [or] how resilient their son may be to a downturn in the job market in 10 years’ time.”

jk/rz/oa

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Building resilience

A series of articles exploring what resilience means for vulnerable communities, and its impact on the architecture of aid
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


]]></body><pubDate>Mon, 04 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97584/Understanding-resilience</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2011/201109190842460718t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">JOHANNESBURG 04 March 2013 (IRIN) - No one working in the aid community in recent years could have avoided the buzzword “resilience” - but what does the term mean practically, and how has it helped shape action on the ground?</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Kenya’s HIV programmes steel themselves for elections</title><pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2008/200804282t.jpg" />]]>NAIROBI 26 February 2013 (IRIN) - When violence broke out following the announcement of Kenya’s poll results in 2007, Henry Mwiterere and his family fled to safety shortly before their house, in the Rift Valley town of Burnt Forest, was burned to the ground.</description><body><![CDATA[NAIROBI 26 February 2013 (IRIN) - When violence broke out following the announcement of Kenya’s poll results in 2007, Henry Mwiterere [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/77950/KENYA-Henry-Mwitirere-Kenya-I-m-displaced-but-at-least-I-can-help-other-HIV-positive-people ] and his family fled to safety shortly before their house, in the Rift Valley town of Burnt Forest, was burned to the ground.

Mwiterere, who has lived with HIV for over a decade, escaped with his life-prolonging antiretroviral drugs (ARVs), but many people were not so lucky. They were forced to abandon their ARVs in the frenzy, missing several days' doses and risking drug-resistance [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/76288/KENYA-Drug-resistance-risk-as-displaced-HIV-patients-skip-ARV-doses ] in the process.

This time around, Mwiterere - who is a support worker with the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) [ http://www.ampathkenya.org ], an organization that treats more than 140,000 HIV-positive people in western Kenya - says patients are much more aware. With the 2013 general election just around the corner, many are coming to collect their drugs early to ensure that, should the worst happen, they will be prepared.

"We now give patients drugs every three months, and we've seen patients coming early to collect them. Although we've seen movement - people from Kisumu, for instance, are leaving Nakuru to go home where they feel safer - people are getting their drugs and taking them with them."

Health service providers are doing their best to make sure their patients are not left stranded. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), which is caring for 10,500 HIV-positive people in Nyanza Province's Homa Bay and 2,400 in the Nairobi slum of Mathare, as well as hundreds of tuberculosis (TB) patients at both sites, will be operating with a full staff and with extra staff on stand-by throughout the election period. The organization has also made preparations to provide additional first aid and trauma care should it be required.

Stocking up

"In anticipation of possible election-related violence, we started to modify our patient appointments. Since September 2012, we've been adjusting their schedules to ensure that we have minimum consultations in the two weeks around the election and patients have the required medications during this period," Hajir Elyas, deputy medical coordinator for MSF, told IRIN.

"We have ordered extra supplies and medications that are provided by MSF to cover for a couple of months, but we have also liaised with the Ministry of Health, which supplies our ARVs, to create a buffer stock of medication during this period," she added.

In early 2008, MSF was able to organize mobile teams to supply health centres with additional medication; these will also be available this year, as will a 24-hour hotline for patients who find themselves without medication or the means to reach a health centre.

Joseph Sitienei, from the National AIDS and Sexually Transmitted Infections Control Programme (NASCOP), told IRIN that the government had provided additional stocks of HIV and TB medication to its health facilities ahead of the polls.
 
"Emergencies seriously disrupt people's treatment process, and with diseases like TB or HIV, where adherence is critical, the consequences of such disruptions are even more severe. We realize that," he told IRIN. "We have greatly decentralized [stocks of] both TB and HIV medicine so that they can be easily accessible during this period. The government has issued a circular to all health facilities to ensure that they all have medicines that can last for one more month over the three months of stocks they normally receive."

He said health centres had also advised patients to carry their patient cards - issued by their primary health facility and containing their history and treatment regimens - at all times so that they would be able to access their medication from the closest government-run health facility in the event of an emergency.

Sexual violence

Another major problem following the last election was the high level of sexual violence [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/76068/KENYA-Rape-on-the-rise-in-post-election-violence ]. Women, men and children experienced rape and sexual assault, with many contracting sexually transmitted infections and suffering post-traumatic stress. Few of these cases were prosecuted; on 21 February, eight survivors of sexual violence committed during that period took the government to court [ http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97516/Post-election-rape-survivors-sue-Kenyan-government ] over its failure to protect them or investigate the crimes committed against them.

"Political violence highly increases women and even men's... risk of sexual violence and of sexual transmitted infections such as HIV," said Saida Ali, the executive director of the Coalition on Violence Against Women (COVAW).

She said the Peace Initiative Kenya, a coalition of civil society groups, were distributing dignity kits - containing reusable sanitary towels, cotton wool, a kanga (sarong), reusable baby nappies, underwear, petroleum jelly and soap - to hospitals in Nairobi to support women who may suffer sexual violence. They have also donated post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) - a course of ARVs given to people recently exposed to HIV to reduce their likelihood of contracting the virus - to a hospital in the capital and to one in the Rift Valley.

She stressed, however, that the onus was on the government to ensure that survivors of sexual violence were able to access emergency medical treatment.

"Things that women need in an event that they report rape, like PEP, must be available at facilities," she said. "For marginalized areas like North Eastern [Province], the government should ensure that emergency centres exist, because in such places available health facilities are far apart and not easily accessible to many and particularly in emergencies."

kr/ko/rz

]]></body><pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97545/Kenya-s-HIV-programmes-steel-themselves-for-elections</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2008/200804282t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">NAIROBI 26 February 2013 (IRIN) - When violence broke out following the announcement of Kenya’s poll results in 2007, Henry Mwiterere and his family fled to safety shortly before their house, in the Rift Valley town of Burnt Forest, was burned to the ground.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Jordanians driven further into poverty</title><pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201302222227400200t.jpg" />]]>JORDAN VALLEY 22 February 2013 (IRIN) - The 4,000 people of Fifa village in northwestern Jordan rely on seasonal agricultural work in the Jordan Valley, sheep-breeding, and cash and material assistance from the Social Development Ministry, but they and many others are being driven further into poverty.</description><body><![CDATA[JORDAN VALLEY 22 February 2013 (IRIN) - The 4,000 people of Fifa village in northwestern Jordan rely on seasonal agricultural work in the Jordan Valley, sheep-breeding, and cash and material assistance from the Social Development Ministry, but they and many others are being driven further into poverty.

Rising fuel prices, an earlier rise in food prices, the spillover of the Syrian crisis, and a slowdown in charity work post-recession have increased poverty and decreased food security in a country that already lacked sufficient support systems and strategies for the poor, local charities say.

The prices of some types of fuel have increased by nearly 40 percent since a November 2012 government decision to lift the fuel subsidy, so Salha* (50 and unemployed) can no longer afford to heat her home. Food distributions she used to receive from local charities have slowed, if not stopped.

"There is no bread, no flour, no sugar in the house any more," she told IRIN.

The government lifted its fuel subsidy in an attempt to reduce the budget deficit in order to secure a US$2 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund. The price of gas, used for cooking and heating, rose from 6.5 Jordanian dinars per cylinder to 10.

Some food prices - which had already increased as the Syrian crisis disrupted supply and export chains [ http://www.irinnews.org/report/96583/Analysis-Syria-and-the-regional-food-chain ] - increased further.

Chicken and eggs for example, have risen in price by 25 percent since November, according to the Foodstuff Traders Association, because of the high heating costs involved in raising chickens.

Overall, the average Consumer Price Index for food prices has risen steadily from 2009 to 2012, according the Jordanian government’s Department of Statistics, though there are seasonal changes and the price of cereals has remained stable. 

Strains and coping mechanisms

Several Jordanian families in Fifa have been left without heating this winter, said Fadyah Saaden, president of the Women of Fifa Village Charitable Association.

"How can someone, like a single elderly woman, surviving on JD 70 of assistance from the government use heating this winter? What would be left for food and other needs?" she told IRIN.

As for food, "people just eat less and less,” Saaden said, "but given their poor diet [to begin with], it means people are eating chicken or meat once every two months instead of once every month."

According to Mutasem Hayarai, coordinator of the National Alliance Against Hunger and Malnutrition (NAJMAH), a semi-governmental body created in 2004 to coordinate national efforts to combat hunger and malnutrition, almost a quarter of the children living in Fifa village suffered from anaemia even before the price hikes.

Now, they are even more vulnerable. To try to improve children’s diets, NAJMAH is now providing some families with sheep so they can make dairy products.

Increased competition for jobs

The influx of at least 230,000 Syrians fleeing conflict next door has also increased the competition for jobs.

"We are struggling to find work in farms nowadays,” said Jumana Bawaz, 23. “So many people fled here. It is easier for an employer to hire an entire [Syrian] family because it costs them less money."

Their presence has also put a strain on families hosting them and on public services like water, health and education.

“The influx of refugees is putting enormous pressure on local communities,” said Dominique Hyde, representative of the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in Jordan. “There has been a real empathy in welcoming the refugees, especially when one considers the poverty levels in this country.”

Imperfect statistics

Figures released recently by the Ministry of Planning show an increase in poverty rates from 13.3 percent in 2008 to 14.4 percent in 2010. The study defines the poverty line as living on less than JD 68 per person per month ($3.20 a day).

Experts, however, say the scale of poverty is probably much worse than depicted by official numbers, given the changes in the last two years.

"[The economic situation] has become worse, food prices have increased, unemployment has increased,” said Jumana Ghoniemat, economist and editor-in-chief of al-Ghad newspaper.

She said the number of poverty pockets - defined by the Ministry of Planning as areas where poverty rates are higher than 20 percent - are no fewer than 45, higher than the official figure of 32.

Although there are more job opportunities in urban areas, such as the capital, increasing living expenses make it harder for poor families to live there.

“My wife and our newborn baby go all day without heating. We only switch the heating on when I finish work and the three other children come back from school,” said Ahmad Khaldi, a resident of Amman. He earns JD180 a month working as an electrician.

Haifa Haider, programmes’ coordinator at the Family Development Association (FDA), a local charity helping the needy in East Amman, said poor families in Amman have used other coping mechanisms.

“Most families we deal with have been providing their children with a late lunch and skipping the dinner meal. Parents say they cannot provide protein-rich food to their children given that meat and eggs are so expensive nowadays,” she told IRIN.

In 2008, 36.5 percent of an average Jordanian family’s expenditure was related to food, according to the World Food Programme. A survey [ http://www.wfp.org/content/jordan-food-security-survey-poverty-pockets-september-2008 ] it conducted that year on food security in Jordan’s poverty pockets found that 60 percent of households in those areas had borderline, poor or very poor access to food - a measure of their ability to cope with shocks and to cover minimum food expenditures. Almost 11 percent of households in the poverty pockets were totally dependent on gifts and handouts.

Addressing the problem

Some analysts blame the government.

“In the past few years, the government has failed in creating developmental projects aimed at alleviating poverty and creating jobs,” said Ghoniemat. “Increasing food prices accompanied by high rates of unemployment have dragged middle-class and lower middle-class families below the poverty line as they can no longer meet their needs. Hence, the number of the poor has increased.”

According to Qasim Hammouri, economist and lecturer at the University of Yarmouk, inequitable growth is at the root of the problem.

"Most development projects are centered in the capital and major northern cities such as Irbid and Zarqa. In the south, there are no job opportunities, or even proper infrastructure," he told IRIN.

In January, the Ministry of Social Development announced a new seven-year strategy aimed at reducing poverty rates from 14 to 7 percent by the year 2020.

According to Social Ministry spokesperson Fawaz Ratrut, the strategy will focus on creating jobs and strengthening infrastructure. "We are also paying attention to coordinating efforts between all government bodies responsible for addressing poverty such as infrastructure, aid, training and finding job opportunities," he told IRIN.

But the first challenge, he said, is to secure funding for implementing the strategy.

Charities struggling to keep up

Charities providing assistance to the needy in Jordan say they are struggling to help the increasing number of needy families.

Hayarai, of NAJMAH, said funding to help the poor and donations from the private sector have decreased “drastically” over the past few years because of the global financial crisis.

NAJMAH’s National Goodwill Campaign, for example, used to help around 25,000 families every year, but "is now struggling to reach this number even as poor families have increased”.

Saaden, of the local charity in Fifa, said the most her organization could do in 2012 was distribute a few meals during Ramadan: "Now there is hardly any aid coming.”

Lack of coordination between local and international efforts to combat poverty is another major challenge.

"There are so many programmes out there to address poverty in Jordan, but it could be more effective if it were all well-coordinated,” said Abdullah Zubi of NAJMAH. “Sometimes there is more than one project in one area but none in another."

A 2012 report [ http://www.ifpri.org/publication/beyond-arab-awakening ] by the International Food Policy Research Institute recommended that to reduce poverty and improve food security, countries of the Arab world should improve data in order to make evidence-based decisions on policies; focus on economic growth via manufacturing and the service sector rather than agriculture; reform the allocation of public spending; and hold national dialogues on economic development strategies.

*not a real name

aa/ha/cb

]]></body><pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97528/Jordanians-driven-further-into-poverty</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201302222227400200t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">JORDAN VALLEY 22 February 2013 (IRIN) - The 4,000 people of Fifa village in northwestern Jordan rely on seasonal agricultural work in the Jordan Valley, sheep-breeding, and cash and material assistance from the Social Development Ministry, but they and many others are being driven further into poverty.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Diseases spreading in Syria as WASH systems collapse</title><pubDate>Thu, 21 Feb 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201302210532150234t.jpg" />]]>DUBAI 21 February 2013 (IRIN) - After two years of conflict in Syria, waterborne diseases are on the rise, compounding a growing humanitarian crisis. Typhoid and hepatitis A are spreading because water pumps are not running, sewerage systems have broken down, and chlorine for purifying water is running out.</description><body><![CDATA[DUBAI 21 February 2013 (IRIN) - In Salqin, a small town in Syria’s northeastern governorate of Idlib, three members of the Islamist rebel group Ahrar al Sham are lying sick with a contagious fever characterized by an inflammation of the intestinal tract.

“We are living together, and now we are all suffering from the same disease,” said the commander of the unit, Hamza Abdurrahman, having difficulties speaking because of his sore throat. “The doctor told us we had typhoid because we drank dirty water.”

The rural area near the Turkish border has seen a growing number of infections in recent weeks, Abdurrahman told IRIN.

“There is no running water, so people drink from the wells or the rivers.” The only alternative is buying water from tankers, which is very costly. “You have to pay about US $35to fill up the tank on your roof. This is why poor people are having a problem.”

After two years of conflict in Syria, waterborne diseases are on the rise, compounding a growing humanitarian crisis. Typhoid, an infection caused by salmonella bacteria, has been reported, in addition to hepatitis A, a highly contagious viral liver disease.

Infections are spreading due to a confluence of trends, said Elizabeth Hoff, representative of the World Health Organization (WHO) in Syria. For example, water pumps cannot be run because of the shortage of electricity and fuel. The resulting lack of drinking water is in addition to an almost complete breakdown of the sewage and the waste system in some regions, she said.

Hence, people resort to drinking from rivers or wells that might be contaminated with faeces. To make matters worse, these risks of infection coincide with the collapse of the health system [ http://www.irinnews.org/report/97011/SYRIA-Healthcare-system-crumbling ]. According to WHO, more than half of all hospitals in Syria have been damaged; more than one third are out of service. Many doctors have left the embattled cities, and medication is often not available.

“Everything is coming together,” Hoff told IRIN. “This is certainly a crisis with a very grave outlook.”

Hepatitis, typhoid

WHO has registered 800 cases of hepatitis across Syria and 2,500 cases of typhoid in mostly rebel-held, northeastern Deir-er-Zor Governorate alone.

In Apamea, a city of about 10,000 in Hama Governorate, Hasan Hamidi is one of only two doctors who remain.

“Before the conflict started, I diagnosed four or five patients a year with hepatitis A,” he said. “Now, it’s four or five a day, most of them children.” When the clinic where Hamidi used to work was destroyed by shelling, he set up a small practice in a private house. However, lacking equipment and medical supplies, there is not much he can do to help his patients.

“I have no medication for hepatitis A, so I can only tell my patients to rest in bed and stick to a low-fat diet.”

Patients with mild cases usually recover, he said. In more severe cases, however, the situation often turns critical.

“There are hospitals in Hama city, but people are scared of being arrested there. So they stay here, and some die from their diseases because they have no access to medical help.”

Nearly 70,000 people have been killed since the uprising started in March 2011, according to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. As the conflict has escalated in recent months, living conditions have deteriorated drastically.

According to an assessment by the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the water supply available in the affected governorates has fallen to one third of the pre-crisis level.

“The situation is concerning and in some areas, the shortage of water is serious,” said Iman Morooka, a UNICEF spokesperson in Syria. “For instance, in certain localities of Deir-er-Zor, water pumping [for drinking, cleaning, washing] has dropped by up to 90 percent,” a result of fighting, damage to the infrastructure, power cuts, lack of maintenance, and lack of fuel and electricity.

The health risk due to lack of, or poor quality, water is particularly high for children, she told IRIN. The swelling numbers of displaced people, currently two million, are aggravating the problem, with many of them living in overcrowded shelters without access to basic sanitation.

Lack of water treatment chemicals

Even tap water has become a health hazard since the national production of water treatment chemicals has almost ceased. In some areas, the main water sources are controlled by the opposition, and so water authorities cannot even access the water source for testing and purification.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has been providing water treatment chemicals to governorates, and in some cases has trucked water into certain areas until more permanent solutions could be found.

UNICEF is now “prioritizing interventions in the water and sanitation sector,” Morooka said. The agency has just started importing chlorine to provide safe water for 10 million people - almost half of Syria’s population.

Leishmaniasis

The figures for affected people are probably incomplete: due to lack of access, WHO has to rely on local NGOs for information. The data that is available suggests that Deir-er-Zor has been more affected than any other governorate. The diseases reported from there include leishmaniasis, a skin infection transmitted by a sand fly causing ulcers similar to leprosy.

“In the countryside, rubbish is piling up and sewage is running into the streams, making the swamps next to the villages grow. This is why the flies are multiplying,” said an Amer*, a citizen journalist in Deir-ez-Zor. “Before, the government used to drain the swamps. Now nobody does.”

Amer said he recently visited a clinic because he was suffering from a rash. When he talked to the doctors, they told him they had seven new cases of leishmaniasis every day - in that clinic alone.

According to WHO, “leishmaniasis is a poverty-related disease. It affects the poorest of the poor and is associated with malnutrition, displacement, poor housing, illiteracy, gender discrimination, weakness of the immune system and lack of resources… Epidemics flourish under conditions of famine, complex emergencies and mass population movements.” 

“The state suspended all vaccination programmes, and medicine is so expensive that people cannot afford it,” said Amer. “Everybody is poor now, and everybody is living in this dirty atmosphere.”

According to WHO’s Hoff, leishmaniasis has been spreading as displaced people brought it to cities where the diseases had not occurred before. Moreover, she warned, the health risks might increase even more as soon as the weather gets warmer.

“Now, we’re in the cooler months, but Syria will heat up soon, so the current level of infections is an alarm bell for me.”

gmk/ha/cb

*Corrected to clarify the nature of leishmaniasis and how it is spread

]]></body><pubDate>Thu, 21 Feb 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97518/Diseases-spreading-in-Syria-as-WASH-systems-collapse</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201302210532150234t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">DUBAI 21 February 2013 (IRIN) - After two years of conflict in Syria, waterborne diseases are on the rise, compounding a growing humanitarian crisis. Typhoid and hepatitis A are spreading because water pumps are not running, sewerage systems have broken down, and chlorine for purifying water is running out.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title>Egyptian farmers fearful as locust threat looms</title><pubDate>Thu, 21 Feb 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201302181403370840t.jpg" />]]>CAIRO 21 February 2013 (IRIN) - Scattered pockets of locusts in southern Egypt and northern Sudan are a threat to agricultural land, warns the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Countries along the Red Sea should remain on “high alert and make every effort to find and treat all infestations”, it says.</description><body><![CDATA[CAIRO 21 February 2013 (IRIN) - Scattered pockets of locusts in southern Egypt and northern Sudan are a threat to agricultural land, warns the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Countries along the Red Sea should remain on “high alert and make every effort to find and treat all infestations”, it says.

During January, immature locusts known as “hoppers” formed bands and swarms along the coastal plains of the Red Sea, increasing locust numbers significantly in southeastern Egypt, northeastern Sudan, Eritrea and Saudi Arabia, FAO said in its January bulletin [ http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/common/ecg/562/en/DL412e.pdf ].

Despite “substantial” ground control operations in these countries, “more swarms are expected to form in northeast Sudan and southeast Egypt in the coming weeks,” it added in a 17 February update [ http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/common/ecg/2068/en/DL412eAlert.pdf ] on its website.

“The desert locust is a difficult pest to control,” said Mamoon AlAlawi, secretary of FAO’s Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in the Central Region, which includes Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Oman and Yemen. “Limited resources for locust monitoring and control, and political turmoil within and between affected countries further reduce the capacity of a country to undertake the necessary monitoring and control activities.”

AlAlawi said this threat was unlikely to turn into a humanitarian crisis, with the winter breeding period coming to a close and the current number of swarms relatively limited. Still, if the rains are strong in the coming weeks, increased breeding could lead to more swarms. “The situation is potentially dangerous,” he said, if swarms reach the interior of Saudi Arabia, a breeding area during the spring.

So far, a small number of locust swarms have appeared in areas near Egyptian tourist resorts in Marsa Allam and in the partially desert area of the New Valley, according to local media reports. Numerous high-density groups of mature adult locusts also laid eggs in the Abraaq area of the southern Red Sea coast in Egypt, and by the end of January, immature adults were also forming groups there, FAO said. In northern Sudan, swarms have invaded cropping areas in the interior in recent days, attacking winter crops and fruit orchards.

Action

Late last year the Ministry of Agriculture sent 14 combat squads to the south, having learned a lesson from tardy action against the 2004 locust invasion [ http://www1.youm7.com/News.asp?NewsID=949018 ], (Arabic). Nearly 11,000 hectares were cleared of locusts in January, with the support of the FAO Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in the Central Region, which strives to minimize the use of pesticides, through its EMPRES programme [ http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/common/ecg/813_en_FightingDLsafelyE.pdf ].

But despite these efforts, locust numbers increased significantly in January, especially along the Red Sea coast between Egypt and Sudan, FAO said.

AlAlawi said the first warning about the current situation of desert locusts in Egypt was issued at the end of last summer, “so sufficiently in advance”. The control operations were successful in minimizing the threat, but some swarms survived and headed to the Red Sea, where weather conditions were warmer. This encouraged breeding and they were able to lay eggs in December and January.

“As Desert Locusts are always on the move, it is difficult to totally control them in one time,” AlAlawi said.

Others are more critical of the eradication efforts.

"The fact is that locusts had already managed to cross the border into Egypt and this means that they will threaten our fields," said Ahmed Amr, a professor of agriculture from Zagazig University. "This shows that the government did not do its job of combating these insects at the border well. Once these locusts are in, you cannot stop them from ravaging the crops."

Meanwhile, experts like Saeed Al Zeiny, a professor of entomology from Ain Shams University, pin their hopes on the weather. He says if the direction of the wind changes, locusts might be forced to change their course.

"It is not easy to control locust hordes on the move," Al Zeiny said. "Everybody must also know that these locusts keep changing every now and then. This means that the pesticides that proved efficient last year can be inefficient this year."

A lot to lose

Egypt is Africa's biggest wheat grower, with expected output of 8.5 million tons in 2012-2013, according to the International Grains Council. With around 3.6 million hectares of agricultural land in Egypt, there is a lot at stake in the case of a major locust invasion.

The country’s worst locust invasion [ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4022871.stm ] since the 1950s was in November 2004, when millions of the red desert insects swept into Cairo and the Nile Delta. At the time, the Land Centre for Human Rights, a local NGO devoted to agriculture issues, reported that 38 percent [ http://www.alarabnews.com/show.asp?NewID=5779&PageID=26&PartID=1&TypeID=1 ] (Arabic) of Egypt's crops had been damaged as a result of the invasion.

Abdurrahman Afifi, a farmer from the town of Al Ayat south of Cairo who lost all his five acres of crops in the 2004 locust invasion, has already started warning neighbours and relatives to scatter poison bait or dust in their fields to combat the insects. "The problem is that most of these people earn their living solely from agriculture. This means that they will lose everything if they lose their crops," he said.

ae/ha/cb

]]></body><pubDate>Thu, 21 Feb 2013 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><link>http://www.irinnews.org/Report/97522/Egyptian-farmers-fearful-as-locust-threat-looms</link><content:encoded><![CDATA[<table cellpadding="3"><tr><td valign="top"><img src="http://www.irinnews.org/images/2013/201302181403370840t.jpg"/></td><td valign="top">CAIRO 21 February 2013 (IRIN) - Scattered pockets of locusts in southern Egypt and northern Sudan are a threat to agricultural land, warns the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Countries along the Red Sea should remain on “high alert and make every effort to find and treat all infestations”, it says.</td></tr></table>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>