While the "macro" political and security processes affecting Ituri present a mixed picture, the situation on the ground remains tense and volatile.
Local media reports say that on the military front, the UPC is beleaguered, with forces of Mbusa Nyamwisi's Armee du peuple congolais (APC), possibly including Rwandan Hutu elements, close to Bunia in the south and challenging the UPC to the north, particularly at Mahagi. In the west, Roger Lumbala's RCD-National (RCD-N), backed by Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC, is challenging both Nyamwisi and the UPC. Libya is allegedly supporting the MLC (it denies the allegations), possibly adding a dangerous new dimension to the conflict, while persistent but unconfirmed rumours suggest Rwanda is backing elements of the UPC (it too denies interfering in the region).
The UPC, although it has tried to broaden its ethnic composition recently, and is largely composed of Hema politicians and militia backed by Hema business interests, is itself divided somewhat along clan lines, between northern Gegere Hemas and a southern Hema-Sud faction. Conflict between the two has resulted in armed forces loyal to Chief Kahwa Mandro spilling into Uganda, according the Ugandan The New Vision newspaper on 9 December. Clashes between Kahwa and Lubanga broke out in Bunia recently, according to the Kinshasa newspaper, Le Potentiel.
The two UPC factions are also said by analysts to be divided in their foreign allegiances - Lubanga allied to Rwanda, Kahwa to Uganda. A Kinshasa newspaper claimed that President Yoweri Museveni was fed up with Lubanga, and had recently tried to engineer a meeting between Kahwa and President Joseph Kabila. Lubanga's foreign affairs minister, Jean-Baptiste Dhetchuvi, told the The New Vision on 16 December that the UPDF may be "poised to attack the UPC". Relations between Rwanda and Uganda had "really deteriorated" recently, a regional analyst told IRIN. If Rwanda were backing parts of the UPC, the analyst said, it would a continuation of previous proxy conflicts in DRC and would be motivated by a desire to undermine Uganda.
Most observers fear a forcible change of power in Bunia is both likely and highly dangerous, with the town, now largely occupied by Hema, possibly facing ethnic pogroms by invading forces or suffering the fallout from an intra-Hema power struggle between Lubanga and Kahwa.
The UPC's two main military opponents are the RCD-N and the RCD-K-ML. These two factions on 10 December gave some assurances to MONUC that they would observe a bilateral ceasefire - this comes after a series of towns changing hands, including an RCD-N takeover in Mambasa in early December. Nyamwisi's RCD-K-ML, in theory a "rebel movement", is widely reported to be backed by Kinshasa. A report by the UN secretary-general of 18 October suggests that the UPC was "reinforced and resupplied" in June 2002 after the RCD-K-ML and the Kinshasa government had made plans to re-establish government control in Bunia. The report did not state from where the UPC received support.
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